{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f08aa6f-b770-404c-9d74-9bef0e89c8ad", "symbol": "SHAK", "name": "Shake Shack Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.746, "architecture_energy": 37.38, "architecture_maturity": 79.26, "architecture_confidence": 80.082, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.51, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 26.51, "deceleration": 46.14, "rotation_down": 27.53, "downward_expansion": 62.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1099.151986, 1054.934173, 1121.754664, 1240.181031 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1215.0, "trend_reference": 1389.812333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1690.041343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281083, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.48393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.256881, "excess_performance": -0.202214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111034, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 776, "relative_activity": 0.592842, "balance": 1.518953, "dry_up": 0.204362, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072282, "annualized_volatility": 0.754294, "from_high_reference": -0.418103, "from_low_reference": 0.323529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1389.812333, "fair_value_reference": 1690.041343, "structural_low": 918.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.002067, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.04325, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.333152, "worst_return": -0.216667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031936, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052601, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.474079, "worst_return": -0.34, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053716, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.06881, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.767947, "worst_return": -0.38194, "sufficient": true }, { 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1701.664934, "relative_strength": -43.326652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.440359, "energy": 88.053985, "activity_lines": [ 1005.333333, 1126.190914, 1334.870242, 1421.259551 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 968.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1478.5, "trend": 1474.13667, "fair_value": 1699.921344, "relative_strength": -45.31132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.789463, "energy": 74.611457, "activity_lines": [ 985.133333, 1068.440004, 1287.558099, 1387.386218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 987.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1478.5, "trend": 1460.40367, "fair_value": 1698.29955, "relative_strength": -43.018702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.501474, "energy": 66.616334, "activity_lines": [ 981.0, 1028.907275, 1245.23167, 1355.958046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1032.0, "volume": 418, "typical_volume": 1403.55, "trend": 1447.060335, "fair_value": 1696.363652, "relative_strength": -38.720602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.949604, "energy": 63.296178, "activity_lines": [ 1001.466667, 1012.629093, 1210.276669, 1328.319099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1048.0, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 1307.5, "trend": 1432.660335, "fair_value": 1694.613652, "relative_strength": -36.638494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.796125, "energy": 57.792054, "activity_lines": [ 1019.666667, 1013.514546, 1179.750241, 1302.573271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 991.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1312.5, "trend": 1415.427002, "fair_value": 1692.498268, "relative_strength": -38.610075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.758168, "energy": 55.516416, "activity_lines": [ 1012.333333, 1007.181818, 1147.276193, 1274.079056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1077.819946, "volume": 159, "typical_volume": 1282.65, "trend": 1402.812333, "fair_value": 1690.830126, "relative_strength": -32.455034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.874476, "energy": 44.427858, "activity_lines": [ 1036.539982, 1018.258172, 1126.823092, 1252.297956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1215.0, "volume": 776, "typical_volume": 1308.95, "trend": 1389.812333, "fair_value": 1690.041343, "relative_strength": -22.48393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.745868, "energy": 37.380326, "activity_lines": [ 1099.151986, 1054.934173, 1121.754664, 1240.181031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }