{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f0d00c5-398f-4bbd-91d6-332fc9b97ff9", "symbol": "PDP", "name": "INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.48, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.906, "architecture_energy": 16.709, "architecture_maturity": 64.007, "architecture_confidence": 84.052, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.49, "rotation_up": 16.93, "upward_expansion": 45.02, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 38.69, "downward_expansion": 27.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.799453, 139.422051, 139.841665, 136.984504 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 138.6014, "trend_reference": 133.17883, "distance_from_trend": 0.040716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.892783, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.508867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103152, "excess_performance": -0.084302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064446, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021257, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.612601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180929, "relative_activity": 1.273835, "balance": 1.612601, "dry_up": 1.004804, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059317, "annualized_volatility": 0.208279, "from_high_reference": -0.095468, "from_low_reference": 0.301055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 133.17883, "fair_value_reference": 106.892783, "structural_low": 114.7689, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000406, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.016575, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.125841, "worst_return": -0.04361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033146, "worst_return": -0.172477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191881, "worst_return": -0.095783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 130.951563, "fair_value": 105.443659, "relative_strength": -1.256927, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.29112, "energy": 47.656457, "activity_lines": [ 144.510267, 143.990438, 139.676607, 135.863368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 135.04, "volume": 94916, "typical_volume": 145827.0, "trend": 131.51372, "fair_value": 105.791661, "relative_strength": -2.342266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.117263, "energy": 21.689932, "activity_lines": [ 140.999947, 142.535251, 139.68844, 136.127138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.36, "volume": 116414, "typical_volume": 142300.45, "trend": 132.115513, "fair_value": 106.155365, "relative_strength": 0.94492, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.243301, "energy": 23.200164, "activity_lines": [ 138.97696, 141.583491, 139.89232, 136.504317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.57, "volume": 178610, "typical_volume": 143485.75, "trend": 132.612987, "fair_value": 106.507086, "relative_strength": -2.308268, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.204884, "energy": 17.8618, "activity_lines": [ 136.591973, 139.986611, 139.658423, 136.598155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 138.6014, "volume": 180929, "typical_volume": 142034.9, "trend": 133.17883, "fair_value": 106.892783, "relative_strength": -3.508867, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.906023, "energy": 16.709016, "activity_lines": [ 136.799453, 139.422051, 139.841665, 136.984504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }