{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f111c2e-15be-4c08-83a6-edf1ec4b05cf", "symbol": "000869", "name": "Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.53, "architecture_energy": 25.169, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.229, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.77, "rotation_up": 28.97, "upward_expansion": 21.11, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.8, "downward_expansion": 59.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.265334, 16.943484, 17.383806, 17.929151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.540001, "trend_reference": 18.738921, "distance_from_trend": -0.06398, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.080204, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205623, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.402895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163567, "excess_performance": -0.170967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06398, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205623, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120474, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163567, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.325965, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7562432, "relative_activity": 1.545206, "balance": 0.325965, "dry_up": 1.47321, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050133, "annualized_volatility": 0.1845, "from_high_reference": -0.235063, "from_low_reference": 0.113651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.738921, "fair_value_reference": 22.080204, "structural_low": 15.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.010943, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.027121, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.141885, "worst_return": -0.123837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.020981, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.004466, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.060526, "worst_return": -0.181034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053936, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109446, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.072804, "worst_return": -0.164756, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -17.671195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.546174, "energy": 66.808874, "activity_lines": [ 16.422667, 16.785204, 17.5932, 18.239351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.65, "volume": 7350271, "typical_volume": 4705340.7, "trend": 18.935254, "fair_value": 22.240699, "relative_strength": -18.084392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.056565, "energy": 60.100089, "activity_lines": [ 16.515334, 16.681199, 17.443973, 18.083055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.85, "volume": 7414128, "typical_volume": 4742564.35, "trend": 18.840254, "fair_value": 22.161907, "relative_strength": -10.142925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.850579, "energy": 37.338433, "activity_lines": [ 17.012, 16.834897, 17.423747, 18.013039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.540001, "volume": 7562432, "typical_volume": 4894126.25, "trend": 18.738921, "fair_value": 22.080204, "relative_strength": -15.402895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.529825, "energy": 25.168832, "activity_lines": [ 17.265334, 16.943484, 17.383806, 17.929151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }