{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f13f580-8764-47ee-a80d-cf6747fb881b", "symbol": "8463", "name": "Ruentex Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.721, "architecture_energy": 33.739, "architecture_maturity": 62.761, "architecture_confidence": 79.211, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.39, "rotation_up": 24.31, "upward_expansion": 3.95, "deceleration": 59.15, "rotation_down": 40.76, "downward_expansion": 72.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.196666, 21.271686, 21.281024, 21.725413 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.4, "trend_reference": 22.658899, "distance_from_trend": -0.055559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.620728, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094016, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.798669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165272, "excess_performance": -0.606644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094016, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.367987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054787, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165272, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.775385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 555100, "relative_activity": 1.578985, "balance": 0.775385, "dry_up": 1.008501, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034121, "annualized_volatility": 0.227676, "from_high_reference": -0.208422, "from_low_reference": 0.057322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.658899, "fair_value_reference": 23.620728, "structural_low": 20.239818, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.007765, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.211796, "worst_return": -0.093596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043561, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.044571, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.252604, "worst_return": -0.261261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012942, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100048, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.278646, "worst_return": -0.308108, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 23.666099, "relative_strength": -34.977159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.591228, "energy": 33.350942, "activity_lines": [ 21.423333, 21.353352, 21.453267, 22.207414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.4, "volume": 205012, "typical_volume": 392652.8, "trend": 23.139857, "fair_value": 23.656408, "relative_strength": -36.010768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.974849, "energy": 28.556345, "activity_lines": [ 21.43, 21.387042, 21.399386, 22.084498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.15, "volume": 323011, "typical_volume": 389553.35, "trend": 22.969404, "fair_value": 23.644825, "relative_strength": -35.235167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.693919, "energy": 31.605087, "activity_lines": [ 21.346667, 21.361193, 21.34302, 21.95612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 335051, "typical_volume": 350976.65, "trend": 22.806561, "fair_value": 23.630131, "relative_strength": -37.12754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.145646, "energy": 41.191798, "activity_lines": [ 21.146666, 21.259539, 21.2779, 21.816159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.4, "volume": 555100, "typical_volume": 351554.85, "trend": 22.658899, "fair_value": 23.620728, "relative_strength": -36.798669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.721347, "energy": 33.738566, "activity_lines": [ 21.196666, 21.271686, 21.281024, 21.725413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }