{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f238c13-0c8a-468b-b47b-7386cba441c3", "symbol": "QCLN", "name": "First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.961, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.47, "architecture_energy": 45.714, "architecture_maturity": 3.922, "architecture_confidence": 68.229, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.89, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 21.44, "deceleration": 56.31, "rotation_down": 68.71, "downward_expansion": 48.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 1471.3, 1552.421818, 1627.332856, 1593.144514 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1505.0, "trend_reference": 1542.046663, "distance_from_trend": -0.024024, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1173.453527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.199931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084216, "excess_performance": 0.032981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.942959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61357, "relative_activity": 2.123745, "balance": 0.942959, "dry_up": 1.758102, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089286, "annualized_volatility": 0.31741, "from_high_reference": -0.228917, "from_low_reference": 0.584211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1542.046663, "fair_value_reference": 1173.453527, "structural_low": 1243.599976, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040029, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002422, "worst_return": -0.11935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021201, "worst_return": -0.022117, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025911, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209516, "worst_return": -0.068009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00988, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.284575, "active": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.831536, "energy": 21.987021, "activity_lines": [ 1603.333333, 1689.372729, 1670.101426, 1608.632254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1446.8, "volume": 23895, "typical_volume": 23842.4, "trend": 1534.756661, "fair_value": 1174.016989, "relative_strength": -2.859435, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.120159, "energy": 39.572529, "activity_lines": [ 1531.68, 1635.952728, 1655.528569, 1603.220212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1411.4, "volume": 65871, "typical_volume": 26421.65, "trend": 1537.816662, "fair_value": 1173.116348, "relative_strength": -6.667549, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.118457, "energy": 45.062948, "activity_lines": [ 1476.626667, 1581.936364, 1637.139046, 1595.261718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1505.0, "volume": 61357, "typical_volume": 28890.95, "trend": 1542.046663, "fair_value": 1173.453527, "relative_strength": -1.199931, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.469564, "energy": 45.713733, "activity_lines": [ 1471.3, 1552.421818, 1627.332856, 1593.144514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }