{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f260e96-dde2-49c0-ad68-0a6a8829e112", "symbol": "3252", "name": "Haiwan International Development Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.864, "architecture_energy": 84.077, "architecture_maturity": 32.636, "architecture_confidence": 88.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 10.68, "upward_expansion": 20.42, "deceleration": 37.2, "rotation_down": 79.98, "downward_expansion": 98.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.106667, 16.632727, 17.312381, 17.897742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 18.453333, "distance_from_trend": -0.132948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.029487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.639695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137466, "excess_performance": -0.578838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201178, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024615, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137466, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24844, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250000, "relative_activity": 1.382669, "balance": 0.24844, "dry_up": 1.420431, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05601, "annualized_volatility": 0.178111, "from_high_reference": -0.267735, "from_low_reference": 0.019108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.453333, "fair_value_reference": 20.029487, "structural_low": 15.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020513, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.013554, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.111421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024691, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036957, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.178571, "worst_return": -0.104218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006218, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330357, "worst_return": -0.061275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 206742.5, "trend": 18.663333, "fair_value": 20.092628, "relative_strength": -39.047253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.790556, "energy": 80.643337, "activity_lines": [ 16.723333, 17.130909, 17.768095, 18.243226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.85, "volume": 144000, "typical_volume": 191596.2, "trend": 18.541667, "fair_value": 20.057692, "relative_strength": -40.027864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.141463, "energy": 85.314864, "activity_lines": [ 16.32, 16.85, 17.522857, 18.06172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.0, "volume": 250000, "typical_volume": 180809.75, "trend": 18.453333, "fair_value": 20.029487, "relative_strength": -40.639695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.863769, "energy": 84.076593, "activity_lines": [ 16.106667, 16.632727, 17.312381, 17.897742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }