{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f2a2e6b-8ead-4a57-aee1-6689a84cfbce", "symbol": "002131", "name": "Leo Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.686, "architecture_energy": 55.597, "architecture_maturity": 66.115, "architecture_confidence": 70.799, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.9, "rotation_up": 26.04, "upward_expansion": 16.75, "deceleration": 66.41, "rotation_down": 52.59, "downward_expansion": 78.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.652, 4.648909, 5.278497, 5.930493 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.46, "trend_reference": 6.814486, "distance_from_trend": -0.198766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.744038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.920715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411184, "excess_performance": -0.418584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.552392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411184, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.492285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5962442108, "relative_activity": 3.122721, "balance": 2.492285, "dry_up": 1.574246, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119137, "annualized_volatility": 0.669135, "from_high_reference": -0.47233, "from_low_reference": 0.508287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.814486, "fair_value_reference": 3.744038, "structural_low": 3.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.025976, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.011023, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.233543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013954, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.012541, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.583578, "worst_return": -0.241372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008858, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02572, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.51174, "worst_return": -0.14978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.196667, 5.990706, 6.552147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.84, "volume": 1999149411, "typical_volume": 1816530463.9, "trend": 6.873153, "fair_value": 3.697099, "relative_strength": -36.131918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.424403, "energy": 92.961737, "activity_lines": [ 4.403333, 4.871262, 5.718836, 6.35357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.85, "volume": 1485657063, "typical_volume": 1711714874.15, "trend": 6.834999, "fair_value": 3.707699, "relative_strength": -36.122364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.456397, "energy": 91.503874, "activity_lines": [ 4.149333, 4.605934, 5.475258, 6.158528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.66, "volume": 2576051737, "typical_volume": 1711254376.8, "trend": 6.819535, "fair_value": 3.723118, "relative_strength": -21.57348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.466927, "energy": 77.511313, "activity_lines": [ 4.264, 4.536909, 5.331566, 6.018205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.46, "volume": 5962442108, "typical_volume": 1909374145.3, "trend": 6.814486, "fair_value": 3.744038, "relative_strength": -12.920715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.685834, "energy": 55.596747, "activity_lines": [ 4.652, 4.648909, 5.278497, 5.930493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }