{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f2a59b3-61e1-4395-90a3-19d622b51fe0", "symbol": "ZVRA", "name": "Zevra Therapeutics Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.987, "architecture_energy": 24.308, "architecture_maturity": 67.666, "architecture_confidence": 86.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.05, "rotation_up": 19.47, "upward_expansion": 49.43, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 43.75, "downward_expansion": 26.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.887, 11.735818, 11.577381, 11.099226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.56, "trend_reference": 10.430167, "distance_from_trend": 0.108324, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.880288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.466951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.10193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.344186, "excess_performance": 0.156732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108324, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124344, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.466951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.344186, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892067, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7576541, "relative_activity": 1.057205, "balance": 0.892067, "dry_up": 1.042167, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154008, "annualized_volatility": 0.698637, "from_high_reference": -0.231127, "from_low_reference": 0.614525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.430167, "fair_value_reference": 7.880288, "structural_low": 8.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087311, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.094465, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.077178, "worst_return": -0.22069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.112867, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.058474, "worst_return": -0.180442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059221, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193103, "worst_return": -0.361744, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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13.35, "volume": 9421670, "typical_volume": 7176663.55, "trend": 10.118333, "fair_value": 7.728782, "relative_strength": 15.71526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.035102, "energy": 75.280251, "activity_lines": [ 13.445333, 12.660545, 11.633571, 10.946774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.77, "volume": 4292903, "typical_volume": 7263282.05, "trend": 10.267, "fair_value": 7.779359, "relative_strength": 15.943576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.790849, "energy": 59.362256, "activity_lines": [ 13.275333, 12.786545, 11.817667, 11.117849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.525, "volume": 10856015, "typical_volume": 7620966.45, "trend": 10.288833, "fair_value": 7.809455, "relative_strength": -11.473284, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.345768, "energy": 18.262727, "activity_lines": [ 12.015667, 12.292727, 11.674429, 11.069978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.51, "volume": 7149625, "typical_volume": 7076934.05, "trend": 10.327833, "fair_value": 7.839519, "relative_strength": -11.412184, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.842377, "energy": 16.572843, "activity_lines": [ 10.976, 11.823182, 11.527167, 11.019731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.56, "volume": 7576541, "typical_volume": 7166576.85, "trend": 10.430167, "fair_value": 7.880288, "relative_strength": 3.10193, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.987381, "energy": 24.307695, "activity_lines": [ 10.887, 11.735818, 11.577381, 11.099226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }