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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.439, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.756, "architecture_energy": 44.421, "architecture_maturity": 15.697, "architecture_confidence": 76.036, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.22, "rotation_up": 55.03, "upward_expansion": 79.84, "deceleration": 51.07, "rotation_down": 18.52, "downward_expansion": 13.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 758.666667, 747.38196, 736.991489, 729.182399 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 750.0, "trend_reference": 716.873077, "distance_from_trend": 0.04621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 649.941693, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15395, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.10902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.155337, "excess_performance": -0.286035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028015, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155337, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.700043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7479652, "relative_activity": 0.826438, "balance": 1.700043, "dry_up": 0.830925, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072967, "annualized_volatility": 0.310474, "from_high_reference": -0.073281, "from_low_reference": 0.174306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 716.873077, "fair_value_reference": 649.941693, "structural_low": 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10.407864, "activity_lines": [ 717.042944, 724.96954, 723.067419, 716.930011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 776.0, "volume": 10248075, "typical_volume": 9176754.05, "trend": 711.66286, "fair_value": 643.590596, "relative_strength": -20.740588, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.324286, "energy": 23.579674, "activity_lines": [ 735.049178, 733.871831, 728.225119, 721.296166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 799.0, "volume": 7832130, "typical_volume": 9245331.15, "trend": 715.100523, "fair_value": 646.927564, "relative_strength": -19.501105, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.818677, "energy": 35.670998, "activity_lines": [ 756.333333, 745.811004, 735.15541, 726.93082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 750.0, "volume": 7479652, "typical_volume": 9050470.6, "trend": 716.873077, "fair_value": 649.941693, "relative_strength": -26.10902, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.755932, "energy": 44.420915, "activity_lines": [ 758.666667, 747.38196, 736.991489, 729.182399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }