{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f36cdfa-7108-4fb5-bac6-e5158c6df26b", "symbol": "AKOBO", "name": "Akobo Minerals AB (publ)", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.524, "architecture_energy": 18.302, "architecture_maturity": 77.06, "architecture_confidence": 76.926, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.4, "rotation_up": 26.57, "upward_expansion": 18.47, "deceleration": 45.87, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 57.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.533667, 1.507091, 1.539905, 1.613828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 1.767333, "distance_from_trend": -0.111656, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.19599, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28506, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.254244, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31441, "excess_performance": -0.439404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111656, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086571, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31441, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636129, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 591135, "relative_activity": 0.933654, "balance": 0.636129, "dry_up": 0.773723, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10681, "annualized_volatility": 0.532128, "from_high_reference": -0.418519, "from_low_reference": 0.453704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.767333, "fair_value_reference": 2.19599, "structural_low": 1.305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.0033, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.001187, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.806122, "worst_return": -0.463869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.043231, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.106639, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.784038, "worst_return": -0.68595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071764, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.163265, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.830986, "worst_return": -0.706612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.278607, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.220149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163205, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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2.291406, "relative_strength": -20.911013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.635036, "energy": 40.194793, "activity_lines": [ 1.481667, 1.501636, 1.55931, 1.667387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.505, "volume": 416048, "typical_volume": 756560.0, "trend": 1.807667, "fair_value": 2.259131, "relative_strength": -26.334909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.614245, "energy": 33.809113, "activity_lines": [ 1.494333, 1.496364, 1.547762, 1.646624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.52, "volume": 515841, "typical_volume": 675592.95, "trend": 1.790667, "fair_value": 2.226182, "relative_strength": -26.197429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.553769, "energy": 25.311697, "activity_lines": [ 1.508667, 1.495545, 1.540667, 1.628065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 591135, "typical_volume": 633141.1, "trend": 1.767333, "fair_value": 2.19599, "relative_strength": -24.254244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.52407, "energy": 18.301595, "activity_lines": [ 1.533667, 1.507091, 1.539905, 1.613828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }