{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f3806ab-ac6e-42e8-8814-d93f0e515cf1", "symbol": "AJAN", "name": "Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF - 2 Yr to January 2026", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.353, "architecture_energy": 62.071, "architecture_maturity": 36.112, "architecture_confidence": 78.173, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.5, "rotation_up": 62.42, "upward_expansion": 86.12, "deceleration": 49.91, "rotation_down": 22.78, "downward_expansion": 10.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.469387, 28.424315, 28.361933, 28.254299 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.5858, "trend_reference": 28.135627, "distance_from_trend": 0.016, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.614784, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.798006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022565, "excess_performance": -0.10306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003422, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022565, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.130377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19086, "relative_activity": 1.005418, "balance": 2.130377, "dry_up": 0.618601, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005217, "annualized_volatility": 0.030126, "from_high_reference": -0.00116, "from_low_reference": 0.050176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.135627, "fair_value_reference": 26.614784, "structural_low": 27.4196, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003773, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.010226, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.005813, "worst_return": -0.017603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011093, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.033548, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.016009, "worst_return": -0.00088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.024629, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08178, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.031533, "worst_return": 0.017725, "sufficient": false }, { 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42.824419, "activity_lines": [ 28.340033, 28.33688, 28.217319, 28.134485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.445, "volume": 14233, "typical_volume": 39012.65, "trend": 28.05812, "fair_value": 26.559215, "relative_strength": -8.031566, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.145006, "energy": 51.077065, "activity_lines": [ 28.377873, 28.358576, 28.250079, 28.160857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.4184, "volume": 7558, "typical_volume": 34391.25, "trend": 28.078067, "fair_value": 26.573194, "relative_strength": -6.435759, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.168521, "energy": 59.263763, "activity_lines": [ 28.397987, 28.37216, 28.278408, 28.184101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.33, "volume": 14062, "typical_volume": 33830.85, "trend": 28.095253, "fair_value": 26.586304, "relative_strength": -5.9635, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.77635, "energy": 54.143741, "activity_lines": [ 28.382073, 28.367427, 28.296586, 28.200355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.46, "volume": 6266, "typical_volume": 26579.5, "trend": 28.11442, "fair_value": 26.600184, "relative_strength": -6.288505, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.712458, "energy": 55.506517, "activity_lines": [ 28.410827, 28.385547, 28.32502, 28.223887 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.5858, "volume": 19086, "typical_volume": 18983.15, "trend": 28.135627, "fair_value": 26.614784, "relative_strength": -8.798006, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.353436, "energy": 62.071211, "activity_lines": [ 28.469387, 28.424315, 28.361933, 28.254299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }