{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f3843e2-9dae-41a2-8dba-ba4e71c98b40", "symbol": "XMLD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EM Latin America ESG Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.602, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.387, "architecture_energy": 19.665, "architecture_maturity": 20.699, "architecture_confidence": 76.692, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.98, "rotation_up": 39.99, "upward_expansion": 26.14, "deceleration": 39.26, "rotation_down": 17.67, "downward_expansion": 46.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.859667, 57.285727, 57.506381, 57.836387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.955002, "trend_reference": 58.133333, "distance_from_trend": -0.003068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.843237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.028288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028497, "excess_performance": -0.079732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292391, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.744257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.744257, "dry_up": 0.25233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027375, "annualized_volatility": 0.219119, "from_high_reference": -0.088615, "from_low_reference": 0.311199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.133333, "fair_value_reference": 44.843237, "structural_low": 53.470001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022248, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.007889, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080259, "worst_return": -0.053567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002012, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03143, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161312, "worst_return": -0.040462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032965, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.023536, "worst_return": 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-0.085637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.211858, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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18753.15, "trend": 57.357, "fair_value": 44.482916, "relative_strength": 2.177578, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.953132, "energy": 21.573373, "activity_lines": [ 56.545333, 56.493, 57.579357, 57.817742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.575001, "volume": 2659, "typical_volume": 17236.8, "trend": 57.545, "fair_value": 44.56407, "relative_strength": 0.009063, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.553673, "energy": 16.932934, "activity_lines": [ 56.572, 56.445091, 57.440547, 57.76729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.709999, "volume": 9586, "typical_volume": 15977.55, "trend": 57.7485, "fair_value": 44.646891, "relative_strength": 0.484889, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.407388, "energy": 10.45144, "activity_lines": [ 57.001666, 56.674909, 57.431357, 57.777935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.68, "volume": 2514, "typical_volume": 15235.8, "trend": 57.9805, "fair_value": 44.744166, "relative_strength": 0.667103, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.331918, "energy": 17.250195, "activity_lines": [ 57.636, 57.060636, 57.510952, 57.838032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.955002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14622.7, "trend": 58.133333, "fair_value": 44.843237, "relative_strength": -1.028288, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.387065, "energy": 19.66528, "activity_lines": [ 57.859667, 57.285727, 57.506381, 57.836387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }