{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f3c343e-59ad-424f-a9fb-15cbe033a3d6", "symbol": "H9W", "name": "HWA AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.926, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.568, "architecture_energy": 46.564, "architecture_maturity": 28.641, "architecture_confidence": 69.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.79, "rotation_up": 16.17, "upward_expansion": 11.49, "deceleration": 52.18, "rotation_down": 66.32, "downward_expansion": 73.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.116108, 3.315897, 3.379189, 3.396721 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.4, "trend_reference": 3.413018, "distance_from_trend": -0.003814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.725245, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087308, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.645052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028571, "excess_performance": -0.093211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093414, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.193428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1686, "relative_activity": 1.314466, "balance": 0.193428, "dry_up": 3.031224, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100193, "annualized_volatility": 0.590091, "from_high_reference": -0.180723, "from_low_reference": 0.398641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.413018, "fair_value_reference": 3.725245, "structural_low": 2.430931, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.012809, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.018794, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.585586, "worst_return": -0.227586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033784, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.0225, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.420071, "worst_return": -0.457399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038562, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00546, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.356643, "worst_return": -0.606504, 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"fair_value": 3.819793, "relative_strength": 8.108904, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.241266, "energy": 76.838095, "activity_lines": [ 3.775333, 3.673091, 3.540667, 3.503742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.08, "volume": 3556, "typical_volume": 934.75, "trend": 3.440333, "fair_value": 3.795049, "relative_strength": -10.85752, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.622628, "energy": 7.808262, "activity_lines": [ 3.538667, 3.584182, 3.501667, 3.480022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.480542, "volume": 8669, "typical_volume": 1289.3, "trend": 3.413018, "fair_value": 3.768141, "relative_strength": -28.653626, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.443976, "energy": 47.116443, "activity_lines": [ 3.154181, 3.39028, 3.40848, 3.418099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 1641, "typical_volume": 1208.95, "trend": 3.408351, "fair_value": 3.746259, "relative_strength": -12.841172, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.566467, "energy": 50.095244, "activity_lines": [ 3.063478, 3.322998, 3.378049, 3.39726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.4, "volume": 1686, "typical_volume": 1282.65, "trend": 3.413018, "fair_value": 3.725245, "relative_strength": -6.645052, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.568098, "energy": 46.563552, "activity_lines": [ 3.116108, 3.315897, 3.379189, 3.396721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }