{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f44e44b-29d3-48a7-84a5-e507bb54aa34", "symbol": "BUFI", "name": "AB INTERNATIONAL BUFFER ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.459, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.82, "architecture_energy": 60.837, "architecture_maturity": 21.917, "architecture_confidence": 75.609, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.29, "rotation_up": 61.26, "upward_expansion": 83.2, "deceleration": 53.07, "rotation_down": 21.06, "downward_expansion": 9.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.751867, 42.5731, 42.2815, 41.943901 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.33, "trend_reference": 41.584403, "distance_from_trend": 0.041977, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.828918, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.709092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048899, "excess_performance": -0.138555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041977, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021638, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050576, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.492416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 215774, "relative_activity": 2.904449, "balance": 1.492416, "dry_up": 0.987598, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01355, "annualized_volatility": 0.092427, "from_high_reference": -0.006193, "from_low_reference": 0.143776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.584403, "fair_value_reference": 38.828918, "structural_low": 39.42, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.005533, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054584, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.005533, "worst_return": -0.005533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.000784, "energy": 46.727882, "activity_lines": [ 42.383, 42.289909, 41.954025, 41.685487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.12, "volume": 11072, "typical_volume": 66351.65, "trend": 41.414087, "fair_value": 38.729075, "relative_strength": -4.509961, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.894863, "energy": 39.880714, "activity_lines": [ 42.293667, 42.280818, 42.01268, 41.735202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.8145, "volume": 31838, "typical_volume": 65199.7, "trend": 41.49557, "fair_value": 38.77658, "relative_strength": -3.311434, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.54667, "energy": 46.504016, "activity_lines": [ 42.4595, 42.387545, 42.129291, 41.825551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.33, "volume": 215774, "typical_volume": 74290.85, "trend": 41.584403, "fair_value": 38.828918, "relative_strength": -6.709092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.819794, "energy": 60.837145, "activity_lines": [ 42.751867, 42.5731, 42.2815, 41.943901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }