{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f46ee7b-8d3c-4ab4-b573-d53cf07d4d9c", "symbol": "PSCD", "name": "INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.797, "architecture_energy": 56.441, "architecture_maturity": 27.853, "architecture_confidence": 75.847, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 62.65, "upward_expansion": 81.23, "deceleration": 63.0, "rotation_down": 19.54, "downward_expansion": 7.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 118.97286, 118.054284, 114.395844, 112.426707 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 122.2209, "trend_reference": 111.108792, "distance_from_trend": 0.100011, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.42373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.574171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056089, "excess_performance": -0.131365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100011, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114995, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128982, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.590217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1693, "relative_activity": 0.56943, "balance": 4.590217, "dry_up": 0.545381, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037017, "annualized_volatility": 0.22109, "from_high_reference": -0.00286, "from_low_reference": 0.282846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.108792, "fair_value_reference": 102.42373, "structural_low": 99.51, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.010028, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.011336, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.084249, "worst_return": -0.100303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049561, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.089321, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0551, "worst_return": -0.157483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061218, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.07043, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.074318, "worst_return": -0.168263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3253.95, "trend": 110.107486, "fair_value": 101.908805, "relative_strength": -2.566186, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.149327, "energy": 78.922932, "activity_lines": [ 117.801707, 115.383969, 111.794268, 110.811663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.4663, "volume": 1069, "typical_volume": 3169.25, "trend": 110.433561, "fair_value": 102.064592, "relative_strength": -2.100532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.679773, "energy": 60.741005, "activity_lines": [ 117.434847, 116.115431, 112.49244, 111.221909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.7198, "volume": 2068, "typical_volume": 3012.25, "trend": 110.832773, "fair_value": 102.223143, "relative_strength": -1.495162, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.339463, "energy": 47.691006, "activity_lines": [ 117.390233, 116.789946, 113.264895, 111.691989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 122.2209, "volume": 1693, "typical_volume": 2973.15, "trend": 111.108792, "fair_value": 102.42373, "relative_strength": -2.574171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.796936, "energy": 56.440536, "activity_lines": [ 118.97286, 118.054284, 114.395844, 112.426707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }