{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f51b4c6-a97f-44b4-b078-0bc2629f9c69", "symbol": "STW", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Health Care UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.686, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.933, "architecture_energy": 19.737, "architecture_maturity": 16.3, "architecture_confidence": 52.325, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.58, "rotation_up": 36.56, "upward_expansion": 39.24, "deceleration": 50.73, "rotation_down": 29.43, "downward_expansion": 13.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 231.323336, 231.240003, 228.041669, 227.403658 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 232.25, "trend_reference": 228.276668, "distance_from_trend": 0.017406, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.02859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070136, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.531361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01086, "excess_performance": -0.064172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017406, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066122, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.859667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91709, "relative_activity": 11.310439, "balance": 4.859667, "dry_up": 3.278041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029991, "annualized_volatility": 0.181425, "from_high_reference": -0.055126, "from_low_reference": 0.193106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 228.276668, "fair_value_reference": 217.02859, "structural_low": 209.850006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.001532, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.021067, "regime_survival": 0.266667, "best_return": 0.087865, "worst_return": -0.080158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045427, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.036058, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.091397, "worst_return": -0.101128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065875, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.004917, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103223, 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"fair_value": 216.630321, "relative_strength": 1.498187, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.64175, "energy": 48.135476, "activity_lines": [ 232.643339, 230.341822, 226.860955, 227.036561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 230.0, "volume": 4740, "typical_volume": 4052.0, "trend": 228.373335, "fair_value": 216.846218, "relative_strength": -1.034761, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.422293, "energy": 22.386269, "activity_lines": [ 231.500004, 230.634549, 227.359288, 227.15355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 232.25, "volume": 91709, "typical_volume": 8108.35, "trend": 228.276668, "fair_value": 217.02859, "relative_strength": -2.531361, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.933338, "energy": 19.737047, "activity_lines": [ 231.323336, 231.240003, 228.041669, 227.403658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }