{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f578d04-3f2c-4ec3-be78-74bea6dbf3a7", "symbol": "EX24", "name": "iShares II Public Limited Company - iShares STOXX Europe 50 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.115, "architecture_energy": 75.412, "architecture_maturity": 37.801, "architecture_confidence": 75.497, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 65.6, "upward_expansion": 87.98, "deceleration": 52.65, "rotation_down": 21.88, "downward_expansion": 14.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.899333, 55.513273, 54.388464, 53.512407 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 56.669998, "trend_reference": 52.604097, "distance_from_trend": 0.077292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.96662, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.256095, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099383, "excess_performance": -0.074864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076061, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.538182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3829, "relative_activity": 1.223362, "balance": 1.538182, "dry_up": 0.830138, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017914, "annualized_volatility": 0.146996, "from_high_reference": -0.004042, "from_low_reference": 0.265823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.604097, "fair_value_reference": 44.96662, "structural_low": 47.317271, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.003114, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.009439, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.061446, "worst_return": -0.113826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.030364, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.014383, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.092891, "worst_return": -0.018644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04109, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.037021, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119986, "worst_return": -0.063478, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -7.355257, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.627635, "energy": 83.085164, "activity_lines": [ 55.187333, 54.628876, 53.416945, 52.778158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.57, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3535.1, "trend": 52.222161, "fair_value": 44.727979, "relative_strength": -7.694298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.572454, "energy": 80.495767, "activity_lines": [ 55.346667, 54.909636, 53.724244, 53.007893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.790001, "volume": 4923, "typical_volume": 3660.85, "trend": 52.417872, "fair_value": 44.845724, "relative_strength": -7.141763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.681288, "energy": 63.568049, "activity_lines": [ 55.513334, 55.155091, 54.027544, 53.238076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.669998, "volume": 3829, "typical_volume": 3129.9, "trend": 52.604097, "fair_value": 44.96662, "relative_strength": -8.256095, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.115301, "energy": 75.411556, "activity_lines": [ 55.899333, 55.513273, 54.388464, 53.512407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }