{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f58f323-9838-40b2-839d-7b5ce7eafc0b", "symbol": "YYY", "name": "Lion-OCBC Securities China Leaders ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.636, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.317, "architecture_energy": 20.923, "architecture_maturity": 71.398, "architecture_confidence": 68.031, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.83, "rotation_up": 40.5, "upward_expansion": 22.46, "deceleration": 41.28, "rotation_down": 19.74, "downward_expansion": 54.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.813733, 1.786572, 1.803932, 1.816389 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.828, "trend_reference": 1.837151, "distance_from_trend": -0.004981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.5853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.811242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03178, "excess_performance": -0.186615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025901, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178112, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03178, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200907, "relative_activity": 0.946225, "balance": 0.655075, "dry_up": 1.1626, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031829, "annualized_volatility": 0.127133, "from_high_reference": -0.082329, "from_low_reference": 0.080182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.837151, "fair_value_reference": 1.5853, "structural_low": 1.692308, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.004032, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.015983, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.099921, "worst_return": -0.055944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -1.8e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026724, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067373, "worst_return": -0.095206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.018041, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000308, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134688, "worst_return": -0.098607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1.813, "volume": 215671, "typical_volume": 213990.95, "trend": 1.844084, "fair_value": 1.579898, "relative_strength": -17.619235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.82383, "energy": 36.277386, "activity_lines": [ 1.767338, 1.767609, 1.80118, 1.817587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.838, "volume": 355767, "typical_volume": 212687.5, "trend": 1.840484, "fair_value": 1.582532, "relative_strength": -16.705543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.57721, "energy": 18.36561, "activity_lines": [ 1.797027, 1.777891, 1.802996, 1.817194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.828, "volume": 200907, "typical_volume": 212324.75, "trend": 1.837151, "fair_value": 1.5853, "relative_strength": -17.811242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.317117, "energy": 20.923321, "activity_lines": [ 1.813733, 1.786572, 1.803932, 1.816389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }