{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f5d6eb5-6ab9-46d8-85e4-6735a8c287de", "symbol": "A1ES34", "name": "The AES Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 94.58, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.382, "architecture_energy": 8.535, "architecture_maturity": 31.563, "architecture_confidence": 64.653, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.65, "rotation_up": 21.64, "upward_expansion": 21.91, "deceleration": 40.38, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 51.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.731521, 74.788598, 74.196816, 74.473551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 75.269997, "trend_reference": 75.330228, "distance_from_trend": -0.0008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 75.888577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008151, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.677293, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09096, "excess_performance": -0.033911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0008, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008151, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140972, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.716312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14, "relative_activity": 0.046854, "balance": 3.716312, "dry_up": 0.146419, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019123, "annualized_volatility": 0.266318, "from_high_reference": -0.162275, "from_low_reference": 0.160619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.330228, "fair_value_reference": 75.888577, "structural_low": 70.199997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007252, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012304, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.225862, "worst_return": -0.192133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082921, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200672, "worst_return": -0.297765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115756, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.083845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.299776, "worst_return": -0.398116, "sufficient": 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76.045044, "relative_strength": -5.069372, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.846146, "energy": 14.59106, "activity_lines": [ 74.844686, 74.746389, 73.98159, 74.564729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.099998, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 307.65, "trend": 75.354664, "fair_value": 75.960228, "relative_strength": -7.404711, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.81802, "energy": 12.81048, "activity_lines": [ 74.547071, 74.661766, 74.032646, 74.479014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.269997, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 298.8, "trend": 75.330228, "fair_value": 75.888577, "relative_strength": -2.677293, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.381648, "energy": 8.534791, "activity_lines": [ 74.731521, 74.788598, 74.196816, 74.473551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }