{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f61ac55-1472-488b-9ca9-1a13725062e2", "symbol": "HIWO", "name": "HSBC MSCI World Islamic Screened UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.986, "architecture_energy": 39.971, "architecture_maturity": 69.385, "architecture_confidence": 92.971, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.54, "rotation_up": 36.73, "upward_expansion": 61.23, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 22.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.102, 35.183, 34.799071, 33.934688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.369999, "trend_reference": 32.9195, "distance_from_trend": 0.104816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.492628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.396808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.179121, "excess_performance": 0.096238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02973, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053968, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179121, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.514064, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8995, "relative_activity": 2.440017, "balance": 4.514064, "dry_up": 1.632058, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024767, "annualized_volatility": 0.16727, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.353051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.9195, "fair_value_reference": 26.492628, "structural_low": 28.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065925, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02107, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.076716, "worst_return": 0.019623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.103226, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215478, "worst_return": -0.009027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.023352, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.047899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.023352, "worst_return": -0.023352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.134223, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.091788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134223, "worst_return": 0.134223, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05101, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018861, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063883, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.106234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060056, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 34.591333, 34.974273, 34.530786, 33.699763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.369999, "volume": 8995, "typical_volume": 3686.45, "trend": 32.9195, "fair_value": 26.492628, "relative_strength": 5.396808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.986215, "energy": 39.970763, "activity_lines": [ 35.102, 35.183, 34.799071, 33.934688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }