{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f6346f3-4c42-4918-854b-b8ada384d86c", "symbol": "SKE", "name": "Skeena Resources Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.361, "architecture_energy": 9.109, "architecture_maturity": 28.517, "architecture_confidence": 43.008, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.99, "rotation_up": 24.49, "upward_expansion": 14.53, "deceleration": 38.71, "rotation_down": 30.58, "downward_expansion": 62.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.53, 28.014727, 28.573905, 29.268796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.54, "trend_reference": 30.035, "distance_from_trend": 0.083403, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.657179, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.38263, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.543152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035317, "excess_performance": -0.090308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.38263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.145432, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.160512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3543208, "relative_activity": 0.960441, "balance": 1.160512, "dry_up": 0.811673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123596, "annualized_volatility": 0.633067, "from_high_reference": -0.160691, "from_low_reference": 1.239504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.035, "fair_value_reference": 13.657179, "structural_low": 24.58, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.022774, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.01172, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.286031, "worst_return": -0.30722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018461, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104478, "worst_return": -0.366374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010352, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.070104, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.902985, "worst_return": -0.304893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.068235, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.157506, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.947137, "worst_return": -0.600188, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.381898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.367496, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.376957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.249175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131458, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055872, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.286597, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292295, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.64, "volume": 260882, "typical_volume": 240779.25, "trend": 5.534667, "fair_value": 8.309728, "relative_strength": -20.862195, "stage": 4, "regime": 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28.524182, 29.693667, 29.927613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.7, "volume": 3176861, "typical_volume": 4102566.85, "trend": 29.507333, "fair_value": 12.9275, "relative_strength": 8.25486, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.496418, "energy": 22.143261, "activity_lines": [ 27.974, 28.423636, 29.49681, 29.889806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.24, "volume": 3015278, "typical_volume": 4057696.1, "trend": 29.600667, "fair_value": 13.068846, "relative_strength": 0.839461, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.31465, "energy": 21.221342, "activity_lines": [ 27.814, 28.110545, 29.181667, 29.743527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.18, "volume": 3397024, "typical_volume": 4037110.95, "trend": 29.653, "fair_value": 13.198462, "relative_strength": -5.712604, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.444196, "energy": 47.054124, "activity_lines": [ 26.897333, 27.467273, 28.707762, 29.458323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.11, "volume": 2745798, "typical_volume": 3927836.4, "trend": 29.709333, "fair_value": 13.341987, "relative_strength": 1.453348, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.944813, "energy": 36.291184, "activity_lines": [ 26.819333, 27.295455, 28.479286, 29.294258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.58, "volume": 2291495, "typical_volume": 3877977.0, "trend": 29.805333, "fair_value": 13.480449, "relative_strength": -2.242624, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.329522, "energy": 39.557043, "activity_lines": [ 26.670667, 27.097818, 28.231905, 29.092366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.54, "volume": 3543208, "typical_volume": 3689148.1, "trend": 30.035, "fair_value": 13.657179, "relative_strength": 14.543152, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.361348, "energy": 9.108849, "activity_lines": [ 28.53, 28.014727, 28.573905, 29.268796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }