{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f679762-746e-4e4c-bf21-e869d295d4a2", "symbol": "ZMBS", "name": "BMO Canadian MBS Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.349, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.94, "architecture_energy": 29.275, "architecture_maturity": 28.013, "architecture_confidence": 44.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.22, "rotation_up": 37.3, "upward_expansion": 62.62, "deceleration": 66.14, "rotation_down": 23.8, "downward_expansion": 14.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.548262, 30.549278, 30.51612, 30.493505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.549999, "trend_reference": 30.471645, "distance_from_trend": 0.002571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.469337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.224619, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003303, "excess_performance": -0.117119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000948, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036671, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003461, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005676, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.867925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.444444, "balance": 0.867925, "dry_up": 0.677778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002235, "annualized_volatility": 0.01538, "from_high_reference": -0.009898, "from_low_reference": 0.009432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.471645, "fair_value_reference": 29.469337, "structural_low": 30.264536, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005687, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011936, "worst_return": -0.011045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.007891, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011215, "worst_return": -0.013388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009143, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047461, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037175, "worst_return": -0.005454, "sufficient": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.085999, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 30.528999, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 2670.0, "trend": 30.455774, "fair_value": 29.427873, "relative_strength": -9.677393, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.427051, "energy": 30.117548, "activity_lines": [ 30.537576, 30.540958, 30.497784, 30.480665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.57, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 2285.0, "trend": 30.465195, "fair_value": 29.448607, "relative_strength": -8.72304, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.717515, "energy": 34.058527, "activity_lines": [ 30.546655, 30.548203, 30.50823, 30.488034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.549999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 2250.0, "trend": 30.471645, "fair_value": 29.469337, "relative_strength": -11.224619, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.940259, "energy": 29.27534, "activity_lines": [ 30.548262, 30.549278, 30.51612, 30.493505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }