{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f6c99d9-e6b1-4865-8851-35621761e066", "symbol": "DK15", "name": "Deka MSCI World UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.284, "architecture_energy": 65.763, "architecture_maturity": 79.877, "architecture_confidence": 60.56, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 53.85, "upward_expansion": 82.27, "deceleration": 71.16, "rotation_down": 28.41, "downward_expansion": 11.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.392999, 43.210726, 42.628881, 41.786796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.224998, "trend_reference": 40.806167, "distance_from_trend": 0.083782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.050385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.724191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134265, "excess_performance": -0.039982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134265, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.89936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6336, "relative_activity": 0.624261, "balance": 2.89936, "dry_up": 1.716718, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017585, "annualized_volatility": 0.106951, "from_high_reference": -0.004054, "from_low_reference": 0.222698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.806167, "fair_value_reference": 35.050385, "structural_low": 37.064999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.012328, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.02136, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.063238, "worst_return": -0.083465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.054425, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.020071, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.107937, "worst_return": -0.151441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046163, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.058082, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172944, "worst_return": -0.08051, "sufficient": false }, { 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3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.034773, "energy": 63.773238, "activity_lines": [ 43.134999, 42.991272, 42.213667, 41.412226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.744999, "volume": 4224, "typical_volume": 10840.3, "trend": 40.651334, "fair_value": 34.944071, "relative_strength": -9.356899, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.509582, "energy": 57.142027, "activity_lines": [ 43.022666, 42.968181, 42.360357, 41.556237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.224998, "volume": 6336, "typical_volume": 10149.6, "trend": 40.806167, "fair_value": 35.050385, "relative_strength": -8.724191, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.283949, "energy": 65.762895, "activity_lines": [ 43.392999, 43.210726, 42.628881, 41.786796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }