{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f6c9d13-a8ce-44a8-9ce9-f32f8bff2f7d", "symbol": "XUSP", "name": "Innovator Uncapped Accelerated U.S. Equity ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.604, "architecture_energy": 50.575, "architecture_maturity": 48.55, "architecture_confidence": 81.577, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.56, "rotation_up": 53.51, "upward_expansion": 80.01, "deceleration": 61.15, "rotation_down": 25.58, "downward_expansion": 6.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.091047, 52.700765, 52.162019, 50.954241 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.8752, "trend_reference": 49.642337, "distance_from_trend": 0.105411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.08649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36892, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.453856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139449, "excess_performance": 0.013825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001659, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139449, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.615045, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95373, "relative_activity": 3.706901, "balance": 4.615045, "dry_up": 1.509066, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031824, "annualized_volatility": 0.187812, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.287395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.642337, "fair_value_reference": 40.08649, "structural_low": 42.625, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.022033, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": 0.004143, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.088902, "worst_return": -0.104697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079883, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.016628, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.174715, "worst_return": -0.082587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113775, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013457, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.147241, "worst_return": 0.077699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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48.55919, "activity_lines": [ 52.46164, 52.419651, 51.081714, 50.039821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.2066, "volume": 29159, "typical_volume": 24770.0, "trend": 49.161233, "fair_value": 39.622945, "relative_strength": 0.516525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.475315, "energy": 40.871136, "activity_lines": [ 52.424167, 52.387075, 51.33708, 50.246749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.6055, "volume": 10269, "typical_volume": 24729.95, "trend": 49.270423, "fair_value": 39.764562, "relative_strength": -0.069276, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.511015, "energy": 36.433989, "activity_lines": [ 52.176367, 52.240178, 51.512599, 50.404444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.35, "volume": 20503, "typical_volume": 25118.2, "trend": 49.432923, "fair_value": 39.916903, "relative_strength": 0.234392, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.56164, "energy": 37.805176, "activity_lines": [ 52.257507, 52.238182, 51.733771, 50.603126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.8752, "volume": 95373, "typical_volume": 25728.5, "trend": 49.642337, "fair_value": 40.08649, "relative_strength": 1.453856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.60438, "energy": 50.575316, "activity_lines": [ 53.091047, 52.700765, 52.162019, 50.954241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }