{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f737816-1cf0-4e75-bf00-3a55bfae1d56", "symbol": "CSW", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Switzerland UCITS ETF-C EUR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.759, "architecture_energy": 57.424, "architecture_maturity": 47.438, "architecture_confidence": 81.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 56.27, "upward_expansion": 82.53, "deceleration": 65.48, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 9.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.294533, 14.237164, 13.950524, 13.736581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.42, "trend_reference": 13.5176, "distance_from_trend": 0.066757, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.670958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235545, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.756198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077889, "excess_performance": 0.024578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066757, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070493, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037562, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.974319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68539, "relative_activity": 0.634435, "balance": 4.974319, "dry_up": 0.587065, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022938, "annualized_volatility": 0.153116, "from_high_reference": -0.007707, "from_low_reference": 0.258509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.5176, "fair_value_reference": 11.670958, "structural_low": 12.088, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.004071, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.006896, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.064437, "worst_return": -0.075945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.010183, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.010461, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.077239, "worst_return": -0.043593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049074, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.049625, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.102475, "worst_return": -0.086519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.597303, "energy": 87.394542, "activity_lines": [ 14.2912, 14.074218, 13.730219, 13.573966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.188, "volume": 67473, "typical_volume": 121165.55, "trend": 13.432067, "fair_value": 11.618574, "relative_strength": 6.71409, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.493879, "energy": 79.662212, "activity_lines": [ 14.2832, 14.1268, 13.800752, 13.625286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.21, "volume": 53782, "typical_volume": 116400.55, "trend": 13.472867, "fair_value": 11.644074, "relative_strength": 4.925502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.033849, "energy": 55.377176, "activity_lines": [ 14.254, 14.167855, 13.86859, 13.675475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.42, "volume": 68539, "typical_volume": 108031.55, "trend": 13.5176, "fair_value": 11.670958, "relative_strength": 3.756198, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.759368, "energy": 57.42373, "activity_lines": [ 14.294533, 14.237164, 13.950524, 13.736581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }