{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f773ed2-b6b6-404f-8330-1e34f6748793", "symbol": "NEOV", "name": "NeoVolta Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.434, "architecture_energy": 16.576, "architecture_maturity": 55.354, "architecture_confidence": 65.651, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.65, "rotation_up": 25.35, "upward_expansion": 19.37, "deceleration": 40.29, "rotation_down": 34.72, "downward_expansion": 58.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.375667, 2.327273, 2.392452, 2.627151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.835, "trend_reference": 3.046667, "distance_from_trend": -0.069475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.097978, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.838389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.326603, "excess_performance": -0.514057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080678, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.146506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9179204, "relative_activity": 1.043027, "balance": 2.146506, "dry_up": 0.672312, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.282705, "annualized_volatility": 1.272617, "from_high_reference": -0.602384, "from_low_reference": 1.084559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.046667, "fair_value_reference": 3.097978, "structural_low": 1.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.050623, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 1.247312, "worst_return": -0.425926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.106109, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.125937, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.546012, "worst_return": -0.253597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010149, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.935622, "worst_return": -0.46506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.270325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.514589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 8246473.35, "trend": 3.177167, "fair_value": 3.116094, "relative_strength": -46.685091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.644028, "energy": 22.03087, "activity_lines": [ 2.350667, 2.312364, 2.552167, 2.839774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.11, "volume": 5151543, "typical_volume": 8334636.35, "trend": 3.139167, "fair_value": 3.111671, "relative_strength": -49.229462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.007046, "energy": 27.645514, "activity_lines": [ 2.289333, 2.266, 2.486429, 2.770925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.15, "volume": 4597670, "typical_volume": 8395006.35, "trend": 3.111833, "fair_value": 3.105645, "relative_strength": -46.513787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.801523, "energy": 28.58085, "activity_lines": [ 2.219333, 2.236545, 2.428214, 2.707108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.11, "volume": 4738405, "typical_volume": 8500356.05, "trend": 3.0725, "fair_value": 3.09885, "relative_strength": -46.747811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.959229, "energy": 31.559675, "activity_lines": [ 2.178, 2.207273, 2.372238, 2.642473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.835, "volume": 9179204, "typical_volume": 8800541.65, "trend": 3.046667, "fair_value": 3.097978, "relative_strength": -30.838389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.433767, "energy": 16.575673, "activity_lines": [ 2.375667, 2.327273, 2.392452, 2.627151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }