{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f7b90d9-e8cf-4387-a9da-61e78601ca93", "symbol": "UNIC", "name": "Amundi MSCI Disruptive Technology UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.022, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.324, "architecture_energy": 20.175, "architecture_maturity": 58.41, "architecture_confidence": 81.709, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.41, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 59.8, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 18.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.555733, 18.831708, 18.590481, 17.89258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.07, "trend_reference": 17.056467, "distance_from_trend": 0.059422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.452292, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169406, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.279822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.180197, "excess_performance": 0.126886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169406, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022798, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.187107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200547, "relative_activity": 6.211231, "balance": 0.187107, "dry_up": 4.476327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074688, "annualized_volatility": 0.243509, "from_high_reference": -0.148645, "from_low_reference": 0.258883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.056467, "fair_value_reference": 15.452292, "structural_low": 14.354, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020007, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034166, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 13.916, "volume": 16990, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"fair_value": 15.396362, "relative_strength": 16.739539, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.814527, "energy": 55.305814, "activity_lines": [ 19.243733, 19.217745, 18.511266, 17.747262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.091999, "volume": 252964, "typical_volume": 22514.95, "trend": 16.9904, "fair_value": 15.424737, "relative_strength": 5.080604, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.014384, "energy": 29.236037, "activity_lines": [ 18.874933, 19.020908, 18.558785, 17.822929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.07, "volume": 200547, "typical_volume": 32287.8, "trend": 17.056467, "fair_value": 15.452292, "relative_strength": 2.279822, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.324043, "energy": 20.174553, "activity_lines": [ 18.555733, 18.831708, 18.590481, 17.89258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }