{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f7db87b-c8a1-4306-8ec8-5e4acefc4415", "symbol": "FDN", "name": "First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.887, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.076, "architecture_energy": 51.827, "architecture_maturity": 40.538, "architecture_confidence": 59.582, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.52, "rotation_up": 55.06, "upward_expansion": 80.54, "deceleration": 67.18, "rotation_down": 24.3, "downward_expansion": 7.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.193333, 30.905636, 30.527809, 29.812021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.25, "trend_reference": 29.053333, "distance_from_trend": 0.110028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.823269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.263031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.194887, "excess_performance": 0.074466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004055, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248874, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046755, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.194887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.73913, "balance": 0.447273, "dry_up": 2.967391, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032439, "annualized_volatility": 0.191655, "from_high_reference": -0.021541, "from_low_reference": 0.261244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.053333, "fair_value_reference": 25.823269, "structural_low": 25.57, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.004406, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002274, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.122942, "worst_return": -0.09295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02948, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.027751, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.157079, "worst_return": -0.147391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007883, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.270681, "worst_return": -0.201138, "sufficient": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044155, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", 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1300, "typical_volume": 1465.0, "trend": 28.898, "fair_value": 25.162051, "relative_strength": -10.337601, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.742418, "energy": 68.003613, "activity_lines": [ 30.646, 30.247091, 29.073762, 28.849355 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 30.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1335.0, "trend": 28.926333, "fair_value": 25.246923, "relative_strength": -8.840417, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.453138, "energy": 62.890281, "activity_lines": [ 30.597333, 30.381273, 29.279952, 28.951419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.82, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 1370.0, "trend": 28.899333, "fair_value": 25.326602, "relative_strength": -10.382447, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.753345, "energy": 41.040642, "activity_lines": [ 30.289333, 30.336, 29.415524, 29.009075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1205.0, "trend": 28.896333, "fair_value": 25.410897, "relative_strength": -7.873142, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.232534, "energy": 41.707719, "activity_lines": [ 30.354, 30.446, 29.62619, 29.128473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.629999, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 1290.0, "trend": 28.941, "fair_value": 25.496026, "relative_strength": -5.016188, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.275826, "energy": 59.597576, "activity_lines": [ 30.776, 30.682182, 29.899285, 29.304838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.620001, "volume": 10300, "typical_volume": 1680.0, "trend": 28.960333, "fair_value": 25.576218, "relative_strength": -7.516453, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.279563, "energy": 52.711056, "activity_lines": [ 30.799333, 30.694182, 30.052381, 29.413161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.5, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 2240.0, "trend": 28.936, "fair_value": 25.646859, "relative_strength": -10.674649, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.426765, "energy": 39.186539, "activity_lines": [ 30.412667, 30.486364, 30.080333, 29.447978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.32, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 2305.0, "trend": 28.991333, "fair_value": 25.731795, "relative_strength": -4.374521, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.649499, "energy": 47.934962, "activity_lines": [ 30.698, 30.616545, 30.270619, 29.601785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.25, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 2300.0, "trend": 29.053333, "fair_value": 25.823269, "relative_strength": -4.263031, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.076286, "energy": 51.827271, "activity_lines": [ 31.193333, 30.905636, 30.527809, 29.812021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }