{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7f85f1d7-a750-4f55-9028-16ac2d01e986",
    "symbol": "FUMB",
    "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III ULTRA SHORT DURATION MUNICIPAL ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 73.742,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 68.572,
    "architecture_energy": 47.534,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.351,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.724,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.24,
        "rotation_up": 63.96,
        "upward_expansion": 81.75,
        "deceleration": 51.81,
        "rotation_down": 16.2,
        "downward_expansion": 6.08
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        20.041656,
        20.020854,
        20.007509
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 20.075,
    "trend_reference": 19.987352,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.004385,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.343043,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037841,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.189985,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.006898,
    "excess_performance": -0.118727,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004385,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003639,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037841,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001571,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.1019,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00293,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006898,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.270212,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 0.998245,
      "balance": 3.270212,
      "dry_up": 0.600742,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.002604,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.007355,
      "from_high_reference": -0.015519,
      "from_low_reference": 0.020568
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 19.343043,
      "structural_low": 19.927564,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 50,
        "median_return": 0.002121,
        "positive_rate": 0.86,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014112,
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        "worst_return": -0.001691,
        "sufficient": true
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 20.05,
        "volume": 141483,
        "typical_volume": 399971.2,
        "trend": 19.975161,
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        "relative_strength": -6.782072,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 20.035,
        "volume": 278241,
        "typical_volume": 383708.85,
        "trend": 19.980919,
        "fair_value": 19.332673,
        "relative_strength": -7.545402,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.400847,
        "energy": 43.846928,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.041071,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 20.075,
        "volume": 383525,
        "typical_volume": 384199.15,
        "trend": 19.987352,
        "fair_value": 19.343043,
        "relative_strength": -10.189985,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.572451,
        "energy": 47.533979,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}