{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f89d91e-fa1b-4b39-8b06-c5b33a861011", "symbol": "301055", "name": "Zhang Xiaoquan Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.48, "architecture_energy": 29.943, "architecture_maturity": 52.618, "architecture_confidence": 46.397, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.84, "rotation_up": 16.78, "upward_expansion": 18.27, "deceleration": 69.26, "rotation_down": 61.94, "downward_expansion": 40.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.534667, 32.131028, 33.267579, 31.366663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.030001, "trend_reference": 28.676489, "distance_from_trend": 0.047199, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.979262, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.670258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.230425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.415174, "excess_performance": 0.407775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047199, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.670258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397298, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.162304, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109986, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.415174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.045354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22677503, "relative_activity": 0.846056, "balance": 2.045354, "dry_up": 0.951479, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218621, "annualized_volatility": 0.924706, "from_high_reference": -0.393618, "from_low_reference": 0.675781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.676489, "fair_value_reference": 17.979262, "structural_low": 17.92, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00425, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.220348, "worst_return": -0.057426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060305, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016763, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083663, "worst_return": 0.03272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.207451, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295782, "worst_return": 0.119121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069652, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 23936403.4, "trend": 27.589156, "fair_value": 17.628848, "relative_strength": 37.700619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.229711, "energy": 50.402946, "activity_lines": [ 39.607642, 38.080974, 34.59643, 31.437091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.35, "volume": 24263757, "typical_volume": 24619040.3, "trend": 27.866156, "fair_value": 17.714538, "relative_strength": 11.353917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.562667, "energy": 25.731986, "activity_lines": [ 35.81081, 36.304072, 34.270741, 31.421661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.68, "volume": 31910626, "typical_volume": 25614570.35, "trend": 28.127156, "fair_value": 17.803288, "relative_strength": 11.932428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.247007, "energy": 16.136546, "activity_lines": [ 32.425767, 34.700713, 33.951957, 31.409651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.76, "volume": 23161073, "typical_volume": 26141621.25, "trend": 28.329156, "fair_value": 17.87929, "relative_strength": 5.493262, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.696974, "energy": 24.187103, "activity_lines": [ 29.134667, 32.905276, 33.418554, 31.256931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.030001, "volume": 22677503, "typical_volume": 26803799.85, "trend": 28.676489, "fair_value": 17.979262, "relative_strength": 16.230425, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.480007, "energy": 29.943171, "activity_lines": [ 28.534667, 32.131028, 33.267579, 31.366663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }