{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f8b2593-8415-4ead-ae49-a2f3f78aec9c", "symbol": "SCHE", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short China ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -6.074, "architecture_energy": 27.157, "architecture_maturity": 63.588, "architecture_confidence": 71.807, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.62, "rotation_up": 14.7, "upward_expansion": 51.37, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 48.74, "downward_expansion": 28.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.8101, 0.870218, 0.856998, 0.83723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.7315, "trend_reference": 0.79715, "distance_from_trend": -0.082356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.402652, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.785021, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.43664, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115091, "excess_performance": 0.063856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082356, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.785021, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081907, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.017419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29, "relative_activity": 0.017022, "balance": 0.017419, "dry_up": 4.751856, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098901, "annualized_volatility": 0.585928, "from_high_reference": -0.314754, "from_low_reference": 0.29469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.79715, "fair_value_reference": 3.402652, "structural_low": 0.627, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.114181, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.1149, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120648, "worst_return": 0.107713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.174202, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.139796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174202, "worst_return": 0.174202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2024-09-27", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.752856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.915, "volume": 67, "typical_volume": 474.55, "trend": 0.7843, "fair_value": 3.491083, "relative_strength": 12.575069, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.880613, "energy": 69.645948, "activity_lines": [ 0.9517, 0.927673, 0.870852, 0.835759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.883, "volume": 32151, "typical_volume": 1702.25, "trend": 0.790367, "fair_value": 3.465351, "relative_strength": 7.685574, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.272544, "energy": 38.823895, "activity_lines": [ 0.924367, 0.925082, 0.874429, 0.842127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7775, "volume": 135, "typical_volume": 1703.25, "trend": 0.794533, "fair_value": 3.437306, "relative_strength": -5.351833, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.008663, "energy": 20.766177, "activity_lines": [ 0.865233, 0.901327, 0.867869, 0.841297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7315, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 1703.65, "trend": 0.79715, "fair_value": 3.402652, "relative_strength": -10.43664, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.073873, "energy": 27.156822, "activity_lines": [ 0.8101, 0.870218, 0.856998, 0.83723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }