{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f8e6106-9140-43c6-b772-900cd67cd883", "symbol": "FTSM", "name": "FIRST TRUST ENHANCED SHORT MATURITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.857, "architecture_energy": 82.984, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.275, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.12, "rotation_up": 75.53, "upward_expansion": 93.84, "deceleration": 42.87, "rotation_down": 14.41, "downward_expansion": 18.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.711062, 59.66426, 59.607649, 59.541493 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 59.785, "trend_reference": 59.436582, "distance_from_trend": 0.005862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.484021, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.613932, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010061, "excess_performance": -0.177393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00489, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041447, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010061, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.350614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3236991, "relative_activity": 0.839688, "balance": 5.350614, "dry_up": 0.789635, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001574, "annualized_volatility": 0.007569, "from_high_reference": -0.000418, "from_low_reference": 0.032145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.436582, "fair_value_reference": 56.484021, "structural_low": 59.17963, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 55, "median_return": 0.003479, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.016777, "regime_survival": 0.981818, "best_return": 0.006603, "worst_return": -0.000434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.011628, "positive_rate": 0.941176, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": -0.019773, "regime_survival": 0.941176, "best_return": 0.016164, "worst_return": -0.001085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023292, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.046388, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.028283, "worst_return": -0.000985, 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59.546704, 59.476844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.639313, "volume": 2820064, "typical_volume": 4014842.35, "trend": 59.383625, "fair_value": 56.388533, "relative_strength": -7.52508, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.88474, "energy": 46.327224, "activity_lines": [ 59.618185, 59.610449, 59.561311, 59.494932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.73, "volume": 3287604, "typical_volume": 3938960.5, "trend": 59.409678, "fair_value": 56.436185, "relative_strength": -7.549369, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.473033, "energy": 64.681179, "activity_lines": [ 59.662234, 59.634147, 59.582982, 59.517278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.785, "volume": 3236991, "typical_volume": 3854991.95, "trend": 59.436582, "fair_value": 56.484021, "relative_strength": -11.613932, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.857328, "energy": 82.984118, "activity_lines": [ 59.711062, 59.66426, 59.607649, 59.541493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }