{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f94c066-5688-495b-af48-c2070e9feb7d", "symbol": "EMQQ", "name": "EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet UCITS ETF - Accumulating", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 85.64, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.0, "architecture_energy": 49.985, "architecture_maturity": 4.584, "architecture_confidence": 74.668, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.51, "rotation_up": 73.44, "upward_expansion": 46.92, "deceleration": 21.01, "rotation_down": 14.16, "downward_expansion": 26.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.7866, 8.591836, 8.474105, 8.518981 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.01, "trend_reference": 8.728033, "distance_from_trend": 0.032306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.257051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026688, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.943744, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057827, "excess_performance": -0.122467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032306, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026688, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02485, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.107057, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161797, "relative_activity": 2.61116, "balance": 1.107057, "dry_up": 1.466989, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032349, "annualized_volatility": 0.213622, "from_high_reference": -0.220183, "from_low_reference": 0.171499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.728033, "fair_value_reference": 9.257051, "structural_low": 7.691, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007015, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060132, "worst_return": -0.026263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.037169, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008294, "worst_return": -0.12215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.106504, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.027446, "worst_return": -0.152026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143904, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.305373, "energy": 19.684959, "activity_lines": [ 8.362867, 8.281291, 8.350586, 8.550523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.543, "volume": 65650, "typical_volume": 62089.65, "trend": 8.874233, "fair_value": 9.24909, "relative_strength": -13.55472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.48878, "energy": 20.535507, "activity_lines": [ 8.455467, 8.330345, 8.362295, 8.52577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.512, "volume": 62734, "typical_volume": 56420.5, "trend": 8.824633, "fair_value": 9.248891, "relative_strength": -14.430145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.09855, "energy": 21.233001, "activity_lines": [ 8.508333, 8.373909, 8.373214, 8.5024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.848, "volume": 73419, "typical_volume": 58026.0, "trend": 8.776367, "fair_value": 9.251378, "relative_strength": -12.537421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.060677, "energy": 30.451559, "activity_lines": [ 8.650333, 8.473855, 8.416476, 8.503908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.01, "volume": 161797, "typical_volume": 61963.65, "trend": 8.728033, "fair_value": 9.257051, "relative_strength": -12.943744, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.999965, "energy": 49.984903, "activity_lines": [ 8.7866, 8.591836, 8.474105, 8.518981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }