{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f9986a9-7684-4138-91fc-8498cb30f9b7", "symbol": "SUPERSPIN", "name": "Super Spinning Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.999, "architecture_energy": 59.158, "architecture_maturity": 14.185, "architecture_confidence": 70.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.55, "rotation_up": 68.3, "upward_expansion": 46.55, "deceleration": 21.6, "rotation_down": 19.66, "downward_expansion": 35.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.845333, 5.597455, 5.422333, 5.43529 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.36, "trend_reference": 5.769667, "distance_from_trend": 0.102317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.872115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283147, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.687608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.210918, "excess_performance": -0.167209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092506, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.838638, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120768, "relative_activity": 0.599968, "balance": 0.838638, "dry_up": 0.459382, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062893, "annualized_volatility": 0.549483, "from_high_reference": -0.410019, "from_low_reference": 0.6781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.769667, "fair_value_reference": 8.872115, "structural_low": 3.79, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.053541, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.022793, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.108108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050633, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013984, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.184337, "worst_return": -0.27027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050633, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035867, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.429043, "worst_return": -0.400901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.067107, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.115837, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.150633, "worst_return": -0.219828, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.249267, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094245, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020542, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.512894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156364, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.8, "volume": 316765, "typical_volume": 409456.2, "trend": 7.306667, "fair_value": 8.817949, "relative_strength": -12.320496, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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8.90141, "relative_strength": -28.916418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.429095, "energy": 17.111652, "activity_lines": [ 5.224, 5.205273, 5.182095, 5.423957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.5, "volume": 84012, "typical_volume": 268923.6, "trend": 5.895333, "fair_value": 8.895, "relative_strength": -20.637059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.042244, "energy": 10.275343, "activity_lines": [ 5.309333, 5.261636, 5.219857, 5.392839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.02, "volume": 153940, "typical_volume": 242242.15, "trend": 5.826667, "fair_value": 8.882949, "relative_strength": -14.494183, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.444909, "energy": 14.4147, "activity_lines": [ 5.539333, 5.407273, 5.308, 5.400882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.36, "volume": 120768, "typical_volume": 201290.6, "trend": 5.769667, "fair_value": 8.872115, "relative_strength": -9.687608, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.999382, "energy": 59.157979, "activity_lines": [ 5.845333, 5.597455, 5.422333, 5.43529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }