{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fa1e518-b8a5-41f7-a04d-d92b3da1ba38", "symbol": "002967", "name": "GRG Metrology & Test Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.565, "architecture_energy": 70.565, "architecture_maturity": 31.367, "architecture_confidence": 90.047, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 12.71, "upward_expansion": 15.64, "deceleration": 39.41, "rotation_down": 66.54, "downward_expansion": 86.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.893333, 17.439091, 18.6533, 19.487932 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.25, "trend_reference": 20.710374, "distance_from_trend": -0.167084, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.735416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266035, "excess_performance": -0.273435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167084, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030748, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266035, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23399682, "relative_activity": 0.630017, "balance": 0.544466, "dry_up": 0.774883, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094149, "annualized_volatility": 0.38903, "from_high_reference": -0.3467, "from_low_reference": 0.089703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.710374, "fair_value_reference": 16.735416, "structural_low": 15.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.015, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.006023, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.222399, "worst_return": -0.172207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.021861, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.056801, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.283237, "worst_return": -0.265918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.109889, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.090387, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.606022, "worst_return": -0.348404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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21.188547, "fair_value": 16.711742, "relative_strength": -20.067095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.981073, "energy": 68.110453, "activity_lines": [ 17.929333, 18.505377, 19.570299, 20.318375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.96, "volume": 31664369, "typical_volume": 37451878.25, "trend": 21.021316, "fair_value": 16.714291, "relative_strength": -22.218886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.980408, "energy": 74.15772, "activity_lines": [ 17.142666, 17.910862, 19.162721, 19.981049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.99, "volume": 22855596, "typical_volume": 37188805.45, "trend": 20.862007, "fair_value": 16.722957, "relative_strength": -15.704169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.985009, "energy": 70.765661, "activity_lines": [ 16.939333, 17.607262, 18.883968, 19.720964 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.25, "volume": 23399682, "typical_volume": 37141348.3, "trend": 20.710374, "fair_value": 16.735416, "relative_strength": -18.429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.565464, "energy": 70.564851, "activity_lines": [ 16.893333, 17.439091, 18.6533, 19.487932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }