{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7fa49b26-fd68-476f-a18c-21486fb813c2",
    "symbol": "VALW",
    "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Value UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 70.137,
    "architecture_energy": 45.568,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.711,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.703,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.77,
        "rotation_up": 38.19,
        "upward_expansion": 64.24,
        "deceleration": 97.1,
        "rotation_down": 28.92,
        "downward_expansion": 15.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        36.613167,
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        36.1515,
        35.405849
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 37.34,
    "trend_reference": 34.461833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.083518,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 26.866827,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.389818,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 6.745431,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.135127,
    "excess_performance": 0.083892,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083518,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059305,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.389818,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039944,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067454,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030193,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.135127,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.983817,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 55750,
      "relative_activity": 0.767885,
      "balance": 2.983817,
      "dry_up": 0.800116,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025542,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.122554,
      "from_high_reference": -0.006254,
      "from_low_reference": 0.377263
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 34.461833,
      "fair_value_reference": 26.866827,
      "structural_low": 31.040001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.011198,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01173,
        "regime_survival": 0.3,
        "best_return": 0.053304,
        "worst_return": -0.036923,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.032431,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020819,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.167481,
        "worst_return": -0.053253,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.120002,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.045001,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.152444,
        "worst_return": -0.008976,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.12202,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.079373,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.23587,
        "worst_return": 0.008169,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.108958,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000202,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01999,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.035747,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001344,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.01521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.031486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 75128.65,
        "trend": 31.628,
        "fair_value": 25.494119,
        "relative_strength": 5.965491,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 63.909714,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "trend": 32.063667,
        "fair_value": 25.677965,
        "relative_strength": 12.757372,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 86.576371,
        "energy": 84.598191,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 36.23,
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        "typical_volume": 82800.2,
        "trend": 32.3005,
        "fair_value": 25.777019,
        "relative_strength": 11.793438,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.864345,
        "energy": 91.162569,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 62045,
        "typical_volume": 83439.65,
        "trend": 32.5325,
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        "relative_strength": 13.866638,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 87.928389,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 79922.35,
        "trend": 32.758667,
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        "relative_strength": 12.750775,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 74.793982,
        "energy": 90.254405,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 36.834999,
        "volume": 3287,
        "typical_volume": 77058.8,
        "trend": 32.965167,
        "fair_value": 26.078958,
        "relative_strength": 12.268877,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 76.620646,
        "energy": 91.064008,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 74342.25,
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        "fair_value": 26.183253,
        "relative_strength": 13.50055,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 126875,
        "typical_volume": 76477.7,
        "trend": 33.423333,
        "fair_value": 26.284792,
        "relative_strength": 11.568315,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.012539,
        "energy": 87.929578,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 36.375,
        "volume": 4097,
        "typical_volume": 73287.5,
        "trend": 33.6115,
        "fair_value": 26.384744,
        "relative_strength": 7.597836,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.364149,
        "energy": 72.140599,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 36.422501,
        "volume": 50043,
        "typical_volume": 72912.15,
        "trend": 33.785917,
        "fair_value": 26.484744,
        "relative_strength": 9.259667,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.528822,
        "energy": 62.213165,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.6335,
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          35.528095,
          34.78115
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 35.68,
        "volume": 85951,
        "typical_volume": 74280.0,
        "trend": 33.937083,
        "fair_value": 26.575833,
        "relative_strength": 5.712841,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.435661,
        "energy": 44.634214,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.283334,
          36.4605,
          35.630357,
          34.903349
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 36.445,
        "volume": 30303,
        "typical_volume": 72794.95,
        "trend": 34.11725,
        "fair_value": 26.669968,
        "relative_strength": 6.334217,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.884123,
        "energy": 35.71611,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.265167,
          36.462091,
          35.797238,
          35.06515
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 36.345001,
        "volume": 60356,
        "typical_volume": 73028.35,
        "trend": 34.286917,
        "fair_value": 26.765016,
        "relative_strength": 4.492441,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.980039,
        "energy": 31.699953,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.251,
          36.427682,
          35.937,
          35.208876
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.34,
        "volume": 55750,
        "typical_volume": 72602.0,
        "trend": 34.461833,
        "fair_value": 26.866827,
        "relative_strength": 6.745431,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.137038,
        "energy": 45.567884,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.613167,
          36.572091,
          36.1515,
          35.405849
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}