{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fa68908-cc1c-4e61-9a29-3efded10110e", "symbol": "NHPC", "name": "NHPC Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.168, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.281, "architecture_energy": 8.824, "architecture_maturity": 27.801, "architecture_confidence": 73.754, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.06, "rotation_up": 32.15, "upward_expansion": 58.71, "deceleration": 81.04, "rotation_down": 21.33, "downward_expansion": 13.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.394, 78.481272, 78.433714, 78.120141 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 76.919998, "trend_reference": 77.618812, "distance_from_trend": -0.009003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.418621, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019111, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.648714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014106, "excess_performance": 0.029603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009003, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 3.1e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014106, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.975283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79931310, "relative_activity": 1.360556, "balance": 0.975283, "dry_up": 1.256857, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046922, "annualized_volatility": 0.211571, "from_high_reference": -0.122287, "from_low_reference": 0.074002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.618812, "fair_value_reference": 78.418621, "structural_low": 71.620003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.001594, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.014864, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.135404, "worst_return": -0.095474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025366, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049318, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.145342, "worst_return": -0.167322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023652, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006684, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.332465, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.522781, "energy": 36.028404, "activity_lines": [ 79.265333, 78.687091, 78.582619, 78.17393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.919998, "volume": 79931310, "typical_volume": 58749017.75, "trend": 77.618812, "fair_value": 78.418621, "relative_strength": -1.648714, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.280719, "energy": 8.824054, "activity_lines": [ 78.394, 78.481272, 78.433714, 78.120141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }