{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fa7a169-5024-46b4-88ee-d7268dc32274", "symbol": "UTSI", "name": "UTStarcom Holdings Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.719, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.279, "architecture_energy": 9.9, "architecture_maturity": 19.23, "architecture_confidence": 51.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.66, "rotation_up": 20.79, "upward_expansion": 13.31, "deceleration": 61.85, "rotation_down": 43.0, "downward_expansion": 38.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.477333, 2.512727, 2.571712, 2.552287 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.52912, "distance_from_trend": -0.011514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.721881, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081518, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.960113, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004016, "excess_performance": -0.183438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011514, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004016, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.034845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29996, "relative_activity": 0.029498, "balance": 0.034845, "dry_up": 0.080615, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156643, "annualized_volatility": 0.48061, "from_high_reference": -0.311276, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.52912, "fair_value_reference": 2.721881, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034536, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049296, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042146, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008065, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.82, "volume": 4661, "typical_volume": 16504.25, "trend": 3.956697, "fair_value": 4.43351, "relative_strength": -18.328462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.691927, "energy": 11.571229, "activity_lines": [ 3.854, 3.777727, 3.737863, 3.796549 ] }, { "date": 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18.717123, "energy": 18.338447, "activity_lines": [ 2.533, 2.641091, 2.601438, 2.564576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.54, "volume": 193831, "typical_volume": 1011819.2, "trend": 2.52712, "fair_value": 2.748933, "relative_strength": -8.201861, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.463166, "energy": 12.561094, "activity_lines": [ 2.501333, 2.614909, 2.600326, 2.565708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.39, "volume": 31952, "typical_volume": 1012835.65, "trend": 2.523453, "fair_value": 2.739061, "relative_strength": -11.814719, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.543064, "energy": 16.740401, "activity_lines": [ 2.462, 2.562727, 2.584404, 2.556862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.48, "volume": 72120, "typical_volume": 1016068.0, "trend": 2.527453, "fair_value": 2.731625, "relative_strength": -8.615548, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.192788, "energy": 12.448841, "activity_lines": [ 2.469333, 2.534727, 2.577244, 2.554058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 29996, "typical_volume": 1016871.25, "trend": 2.52912, "fair_value": 2.721881, "relative_strength": -11.960113, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.279437, "energy": 9.900023, "activity_lines": [ 2.477333, 2.512727, 2.571712, 2.552287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }