{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fa8136a-1f37-43c4-986c-7c55ee6e5e1f", "symbol": "RSUL4", "name": "Metal\u00fargica Riosulense S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.686, "architecture_energy": 93.175, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.826, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.01, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 87.31, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.484666, 47.684727, 53.671096, 56.517549 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 42.169998, "trend_reference": 59.859334, "distance_from_trend": -0.295515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.049779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.834581, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.338302, "excess_performance": -0.281254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.295515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072315, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.03693, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9600, "relative_activity": 0.54732, "balance": 0.03693, "dry_up": 1.525086, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069517, "annualized_volatility": 0.333883, "from_high_reference": -0.406056, "from_low_reference": 0.034593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.859334, "fair_value_reference": 63.049779, "structural_low": 40.759998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.000909, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.010195, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.418182, "worst_return": -0.256154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028817, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022559, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.28972, "worst_return": -0.281573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.072696, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.089015, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.275576, "worst_return": -0.235496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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60.17256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.200001, "volume": 27300, "typical_volume": 16185.0, "trend": 61.509334, "fair_value": 63.225109, "relative_strength": -35.515011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.939279, "energy": 98.489499, "activity_lines": [ 47.648001, 52.232728, 56.779096, 58.939054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.4, "volume": 28200, "typical_volume": 17435.0, "trend": 60.594, "fair_value": 63.135303, "relative_strength": -37.273571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.646459, "energy": 96.300181, "activity_lines": [ 45.174, 49.791455, 55.189096, 57.706194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.169998, "volume": 9600, "typical_volume": 17540.0, "trend": 59.859334, "fair_value": 63.049779, "relative_strength": -34.834581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.685858, "energy": 93.175307, "activity_lines": [ 43.484666, 47.684727, 53.671096, 56.517549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }