{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fc600c6-e51a-4668-85fa-f1658dc724bd", "symbol": "BIOA-B", "name": "BioArctic AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.801, "architecture_energy": 7.429, "architecture_maturity": 46.542, "architecture_confidence": 64.643, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.45, "rotation_up": 31.24, "upward_expansion": 21.01, "deceleration": 50.28, "rotation_down": 34.89, "downward_expansion": 36.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 314.613332, 314.130909, 316.622044, 316.517152 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 314.399994, "trend_reference": 316.543464, "distance_from_trend": -0.006771, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 242.410471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.524473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030846, "excess_performance": -0.030648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.800277, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 655769, "relative_activity": 0.963758, "balance": 1.800277, "dry_up": 0.827566, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075807, "annualized_volatility": 0.368085, "from_high_reference": -0.132098, "from_low_reference": 0.49181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 316.543464, "fair_value_reference": 242.410471, "structural_low": 284.600006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.016852, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.03611, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.446463, "worst_return": -0.363199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055349, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.685853, "worst_return": -0.300262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038565, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.671866, 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309.399994, "volume": 310738, "typical_volume": 684224.0, "trend": 316.563672, "fair_value": 242.303476, "relative_strength": -6.28856, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.082938, "energy": 17.245263, "activity_lines": [ 311.920003, 312.837393, 316.099112, 316.146941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 325.0, "volume": 717048, "typical_volume": 680032.9, "trend": 317.098055, "fair_value": 242.498005, "relative_strength": -3.322103, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.822646, "energy": 6.283982, "activity_lines": [ 315.400002, 314.421819, 316.923393, 316.69122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 314.399994, "volume": 655769, "typical_volume": 680429.1, "trend": 316.543464, "fair_value": 242.410471, "relative_strength": -8.524473, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.80077, "energy": 7.429275, "activity_lines": [ 314.613332, 314.130909, 316.622044, 316.517152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }