{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fcb5704-e949-4935-8fef-1247e83dc1d6", "symbol": "LBO", "name": "WHITEWOLF PUBLICLY LISTED PRIVATE EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.196, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.368, "architecture_energy": 57.054, "architecture_maturity": 28.964, "architecture_confidence": 51.69, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.4, "rotation_up": 66.22, "upward_expansion": 55.37, "deceleration": 28.08, "rotation_down": 19.47, "downward_expansion": 20.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.54164, 25.108383, 25.00304, 24.846995 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.6249, "trend_reference": 25.069465, "distance_from_trend": 0.062045, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.041705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015413, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.855019, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013666, "excess_performance": -0.111959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062045, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042841, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037202, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013666, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3905, "relative_activity": 0.480817, "balance": 0.314828, "dry_up": 0.177613, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030708, "annualized_volatility": 0.236642, "from_high_reference": -0.130935, "from_low_reference": 0.195651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.069465, "fair_value_reference": 27.041705, "structural_low": 22.268111, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001855, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001982, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.04484, "worst_return": -0.003652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.086458, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038406, "worst_return": -0.211321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.087433, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.19377, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.003249, "worst_return": -0.178115, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -14.547356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.413402, "energy": 11.66187, "activity_lines": [ 24.717166, 24.674311, 24.746532, 24.75792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.2011, "volume": 846, "typical_volume": 8233.65, "trend": 25.161323, "fair_value": 27.044682, "relative_strength": -13.238781, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.474846, "energy": 11.164706, "activity_lines": [ 24.943693, 24.765383, 24.813387, 24.752571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.6249, "volume": 3905, "typical_volume": 8121.6, "trend": 25.069465, "fair_value": 27.041705, "relative_strength": -10.855019, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.368318, "energy": 57.054297, "activity_lines": [ 25.54164, 25.108383, 25.00304, 24.846995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }