{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fd2d5af-ab15-42ac-840e-3f0739354e48", "symbol": "EGRO", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Growth Europe UCITS ETF EUR Cap", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.784, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.567, "architecture_energy": 82.084, "architecture_maturity": 32.791, "architecture_confidence": 75.298, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 72.19, "upward_expansion": 92.51, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 19.51, "downward_expansion": 16.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.8956, 11.808073, 11.582838, 11.414839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.124, "trend_reference": 11.257267, "distance_from_trend": 0.076993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.737199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.772804, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096401, "excess_performance": -0.074491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076993, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021334, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096401, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.350773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27370, "relative_activity": 3.580024, "balance": 2.350773, "dry_up": 1.264192, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01689, "annualized_volatility": 0.156251, "from_high_reference": -0.004271, "from_low_reference": 0.17208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.257267, "fair_value_reference": 10.737199, "structural_low": 10.344, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.009948, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.0143, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.056518, "worst_return": -0.082755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005148, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.070693, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.063886, "worst_return": -0.095076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029958, "worst_return": -0.069051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.037029, 11.005161 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 11.28, "volume": 11649, "typical_volume": 5576.2, "trend": 10.946467, "fair_value": 10.658635, "relative_strength": -8.413816, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.849286, "energy": 40.269399, "activity_lines": [ 11.244133, 11.186764, 11.060438, 11.028047 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 11.438, "volume": 1190, "typical_volume": 5238.75, "trend": 10.972933, "fair_value": 10.664596, "relative_strength": -9.673495, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.84767, "energy": 63.38472, "activity_lines": [ 11.309733, 11.248255, 11.098829, 11.059759 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.556, "volume": 1950, "typical_volume": 5252.65, "trend": 11.008133, "fair_value": 10.671314, "relative_strength": -10.726411, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.494691, "energy": 74.957118, "activity_lines": [ 11.4092, 11.311309, 11.147276, 11.097376 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.614, "volume": 17655, "typical_volume": 5823.15, "trend": 11.039867, "fair_value": 10.678404, "relative_strength": -7.189163, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.268102, "energy": 78.222849, "activity_lines": [ 11.494933, 11.377673, 11.199162, 11.136465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.962, "volume": 2788, "typical_volume": 5781.9, "trend": 11.0842, "fair_value": 10.690776, "relative_strength": -6.906548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.026172, "energy": 88.45834, "activity_lines": [ 11.672667, 11.499927, 11.281543, 11.195957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.728, "volume": 9825, "typical_volume": 6258.35, "trend": 11.1228, "fair_value": 10.699558, "relative_strength": -8.032372, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.809132, "energy": 85.859613, "activity_lines": [ 11.725333, 11.564218, 11.337448, 11.237492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.766, "volume": 3338, "typical_volume": 6199.1, "trend": 11.162667, "fair_value": 10.708583, "relative_strength": -6.130005, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.287787, "energy": 86.633453, "activity_lines": [ 11.7608, 11.6216, 11.39421, 11.278989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.71, "volume": 6993, "typical_volume": 6415.15, "trend": 11.194333, "fair_value": 10.715327, "relative_strength": -6.141227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.847931, "energy": 81.709272, "activity_lines": [ 11.755733, 11.661345, 11.443371, 11.314301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.856, "volume": 959, "typical_volume": 6417.25, "trend": 11.227333, "fair_value": 10.725404, "relative_strength": -5.343385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.967931, "energy": 71.73839, "activity_lines": [ 11.789067, 11.715818, 11.50281, 11.356989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.124, "volume": 27370, "typical_volume": 7645.2, "trend": 11.257267, "fair_value": 10.737199, "relative_strength": -5.772804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.566675, "energy": 82.084083, "activity_lines": [ 11.8956, 11.808073, 11.582838, 11.414839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }