{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fd93a46-eaf1-4c7a-ae66-9dc64a38f3d0", "symbol": "1314", "name": "China Petrochemical Development Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.207, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.016, "architecture_energy": 20.7, "architecture_maturity": 32.677, "architecture_confidence": 51.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.44, "rotation_up": 17.41, "upward_expansion": 16.68, "deceleration": 69.81, "rotation_down": 56.17, "downward_expansion": 39.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.832667, 8.156727, 7.981667, 7.963892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.68, "trend_reference": 7.979, "distance_from_trend": -0.037473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.523526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098964, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.637872, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021656, "excess_performance": -0.463028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098964, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097214, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126780883, "relative_activity": 0.763087, "balance": 1.194676, "dry_up": 0.914276, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098057, "annualized_volatility": 0.475187, "from_high_reference": -0.275472, "from_low_reference": 0.147982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.979, "fair_value_reference": 8.523526, "structural_low": 6.69, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": -0.025671, "regime_survival": 0.52, "best_return": 0.121701, "worst_return": -0.136709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.030474, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.090308, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.323034, "worst_return": -0.257019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044753, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.121573, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.159836, "worst_return": -0.186367, 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0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174098, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", 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"trend": 7.979667, "fair_value": 8.565449, "relative_strength": -19.510398, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.974222, "energy": 71.673338, "activity_lines": [ 8.810667, 8.392182, 8.017762, 8.003914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.27, "volume": 191703638, "typical_volume": 210052015.05, "trend": 7.991667, "fair_value": 8.558526, "relative_strength": -24.079971, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.478263, "energy": 64.987856, "activity_lines": [ 8.689333, 8.442364, 8.044714, 8.022645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.57, "volume": 166317502, "typical_volume": 182793791.8, "trend": 7.983, "fair_value": 8.546859, "relative_strength": -28.858002, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.060087, "energy": 16.063862, "activity_lines": [ 8.302, 8.337091, 8.008095, 7.995441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.8, "volume": 122797504, "typical_volume": 173872500.85, "trend": 7.986, "fair_value": 8.536731, "relative_strength": -27.769228, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.430238, "energy": 11.683748, "activity_lines": [ 8.018, 8.264727, 7.998952, 7.983634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.68, "volume": 126780883, "typical_volume": 166142173.95, "trend": 7.979, "fair_value": 8.523526, "relative_strength": -30.637872, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.015571, "energy": 20.69965, "activity_lines": [ 7.832667, 8.156727, 7.981667, 7.963892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }