{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fdb2aea-ec29-4f12-a5db-62fe6a476b28", "symbol": "4137", "name": "Chlitina Holding Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.032, "architecture_energy": 50.493, "architecture_maturity": 9.307, "architecture_confidence": 93.942, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.23, "rotation_up": 12.94, "upward_expansion": 9.67, "deceleration": 39.91, "rotation_down": 60.98, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.713331, 95.547016, 96.49584, 96.917608 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 93.199997, "trend_reference": 97.218145, "distance_from_trend": -0.041331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.267576, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17717, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.771603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009917, "excess_performance": -0.451289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17717, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023482, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028538, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009917, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.322154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1019481, "relative_activity": 1.07104, "balance": 0.322154, "dry_up": 0.809997, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040289, "annualized_volatility": 0.246727, "from_high_reference": -0.131579, "from_low_reference": 0.067434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.218145, "fair_value_reference": 113.267576, "structural_low": 92.314483, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.025895, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.038796, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074419, "worst_return": -0.144366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.045306, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.112527, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.084951, "worst_return": -0.235916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.081821, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096109, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.189702, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030244, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059361, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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99.257014, 98.176635, 98.050841, 97.521332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 96.699997, "volume": 2334762, "typical_volume": 1174854.55, "trend": 96.383651, "fair_value": 115.397627, "relative_strength": -34.408888, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.803485, "energy": 17.118596, "activity_lines": [ 98.475414, 98.023159, 97.918477, 97.554693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 96.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1130981.55, "trend": 96.584405, "fair_value": 115.022841, "relative_strength": -31.484097, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.355508, "energy": 10.01422, "activity_lines": [ 97.492397, 97.864359, 97.773891, 97.575103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 95.0, "volume": 791845, "typical_volume": 1130787.4, "trend": 96.770936, "fair_value": 114.634666, "relative_strength": -27.627821, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.429537, "energy": 15.547951, "activity_lines": [ 96.499214, 97.399415, 97.483331, 97.472883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 94.5, "volume": 660568, "typical_volume": 1024267.85, "trend": 96.92261, "fair_value": 114.280678, "relative_strength": -28.80243, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.297077, "energy": 27.707419, "activity_lines": [ 95.615082, 96.893952, 97.167011, 97.326371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.099998, "volume": 918946, "typical_volume": 961389.0, "trend": 97.094269, "fair_value": 113.944426, "relative_strength": -25.881908, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.948936, "energy": 31.792892, "activity_lines": [ 95.573332, 96.681003, 97.042471, 97.273299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.599998, "volume": 485021, "typical_volume": 923537.2, "trend": 97.218945, "fair_value": 113.619925, "relative_strength": -27.266753, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.959992, "energy": 44.131974, "activity_lines": [ 95.506665, 96.349657, 96.876106, 97.176895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 93.199997, "volume": 1019481, "typical_volume": 951860.85, "trend": 97.218145, "fair_value": 113.267576, "relative_strength": -30.771603, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.032216, "energy": 50.493217, "activity_lines": [ 94.713331, 95.547016, 96.49584, 96.917608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }