{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fdc97e5-3ac9-425b-b15a-bd1572d42944", "symbol": "MTB", "name": "Montebalito, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.111, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.846, "architecture_energy": 68.366, "architecture_maturity": 19.617, "architecture_confidence": 69.725, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 70.82, "upward_expansion": 86.37, "deceleration": 48.94, "rotation_down": 12.7, "downward_expansion": 13.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.948, 1.921273, 1.867238, 1.843677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.99, "trend_reference": 1.817, "distance_from_trend": 0.095212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.522372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307171, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.590261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093407, "excess_performance": -0.031024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307171, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103999, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007897, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093407, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.981316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7649, "relative_activity": 0.52839, "balance": 2.981316, "dry_up": 0.648001, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037109, "annualized_volatility": 0.17076, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.33557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.817, "fair_value_reference": 1.522372, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.016038, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.134615, "worst_return": -0.10241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004977, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037904, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.133803, "worst_return": -0.228916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.124567, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.183824, "worst_return": -0.186747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.531537, "energy": 82.619716, "activity_lines": [ 1.924667, 1.875818, 1.83219, 1.817484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.92, "volume": 11506, "typical_volume": 15719.3, "trend": 1.803667, "fair_value": 1.515, "relative_strength": -5.50557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.102807, "energy": 77.099075, "activity_lines": [ 1.932667, 1.889818, 1.842714, 1.825226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.91, "volume": 2251, "typical_volume": 14457.9, "trend": 1.810333, "fair_value": 1.518269, "relative_strength": -6.720649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.399679, "energy": 67.380466, "activity_lines": [ 1.928667, 1.899636, 1.851524, 1.832086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.99, "volume": 7649, "typical_volume": 14476.05, "trend": 1.817, "fair_value": 1.522372, "relative_strength": -4.590261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.846176, "energy": 68.366044, "activity_lines": [ 1.948, 1.921273, 1.867238, 1.843677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }