{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fe1f875-e344-4ed3-8baf-95d0a416213b", "symbol": "TIMB", "name": "TIM Participacoes SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.134, "architecture_energy": 87.572, "architecture_maturity": 23.191, "architecture_confidence": 89.714, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.14, "rotation_up": 12.6, "upward_expansion": 20.43, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 72.26, "downward_expansion": 91.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.952667, 20.713405, 21.711373, 22.637573 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.43, "trend_reference": 23.474211, "distance_from_trend": -0.214883, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.60835, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.647195, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241935, "excess_performance": -0.36756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109683, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381033, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.356347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2782963, "relative_activity": 1.370065, "balance": 0.356347, "dry_up": 1.410277, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073516, "annualized_volatility": 0.340393, "from_high_reference": -0.346917, "from_low_reference": 0.010971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.474211, "fair_value_reference": 16.60835, "structural_low": 18.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011897, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.045264, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.176007, "worst_return": -0.110797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05361, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.085854, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.31851, "worst_return": -0.184381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.13725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.135731, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.458912, "worst_return": -0.140656, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.16504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004562, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006284, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134742, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.275946, "volume": 1535128, "typical_volume": 2618347.6, "trend": 10.896095, "fair_value": 9.487327, "relative_strength": 11.744734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"trend": 23.385905, "fair_value": 16.403055, "relative_strength": -8.101104, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.275251, "energy": 29.080859, "activity_lines": [ 21.805207, 21.781559, 22.985412, 23.472851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.14, "volume": 3094972, "typical_volume": 1927097.55, "trend": 23.485536, "fair_value": 16.467489, "relative_strength": -7.406377, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.017525, "energy": 29.596672, "activity_lines": [ 21.949227, 21.818311, 22.81121, 23.39247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.3, "volume": 2291137, "typical_volume": 1932543.25, "trend": 23.568004, "fair_value": 16.524028, "relative_strength": -10.537995, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.160658, "energy": 32.533016, "activity_lines": [ 21.812188, 21.729116, 22.581645, 23.251467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.17, "volume": 3289504, "typical_volume": 1987226.9, "trend": 23.547356, "fair_value": 16.569476, "relative_strength": -20.246811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.314355, "energy": 56.663129, "activity_lines": [ 20.916, 21.260956, 22.16825, 22.967725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.43, "volume": 2782963, "typical_volume": 2031263.55, "trend": 23.474211, "fair_value": 16.60835, "relative_strength": -25.647195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.134259, "energy": 87.571971, "activity_lines": [ 19.952667, 20.713405, 21.711373, 22.637573 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }