{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fe29793-7bf1-4280-8462-e1766e5fcb9f", "symbol": "603085", "name": "Zhejiang Tenchen Controls Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.441, "architecture_energy": 75.333, "architecture_maturity": 15.218, "architecture_confidence": 78.074, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 8.87, "upward_expansion": 17.12, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 76.85, "downward_expansion": 92.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.661333, 10.188182, 11.170857, 11.367054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.97, "trend_reference": 11.596, "distance_from_trend": -0.140221, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.407564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.807996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139033, "excess_performance": -0.095829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140221, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003866, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042043, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.440132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37723646, "relative_activity": 1.058793, "balance": 1.440132, "dry_up": 0.995767, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116812, "annualized_volatility": 0.41222, "from_high_reference": -0.330872, "from_low_reference": 0.147296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.596, "fair_value_reference": 10.407564, "structural_low": 8.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.071605, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": 0.043739, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.343949, "worst_return": -0.058151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.127389, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.13614, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.523031, "worst_return": -0.01214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.250512, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.286368, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.708642, "worst_return": 0.001907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.96, "volume": 27933449, "typical_volume": 35654365.8, "trend": 11.824, "fair_value": 10.431603, "relative_strength": -5.089976, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.940133, "energy": 33.676772, "activity_lines": [ 11.118, 11.804727, 12.003714, 11.936925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.82, "volume": 37969025, "typical_volume": 36130776.35, "trend": 11.786, "fair_value": 10.430833, "relative_strength": -9.369644, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.30437, "energy": 61.289981, "activity_lines": [ 10.636667, 11.331818, 11.806286, 11.807634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.01, "volume": 38855161, "typical_volume": 35730227.6, "trend": 11.724333, "fair_value": 10.419295, "relative_strength": -17.432055, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.207552, "energy": 78.472876, "activity_lines": [ 10.013333, 10.779636, 11.542619, 11.628538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.36, "volume": 27364633, "typical_volume": 35330900.9, "trend": 11.658667, "fair_value": 10.409103, "relative_strength": -14.238708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.751519, "energy": 79.322599, "activity_lines": [ 9.696, 10.382364, 11.323333, 11.476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.97, "volume": 37723646, "typical_volume": 35628925.6, "trend": 11.596, "fair_value": 10.407564, "relative_strength": -10.807996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.441438, "energy": 75.33292, "activity_lines": [ 9.661333, 10.188182, 11.170857, 11.367054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }