{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7fe74219-70bc-4e32-bd0b-ab6edbd145de", "symbol": "PDT", "name": "John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.354, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.821, "architecture_energy": 4.756, "architecture_maturity": 28.075, "architecture_confidence": 72.706, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.08, "rotation_up": 43.23, "upward_expansion": 37.57, "deceleration": 30.06, "rotation_down": 25.88, "downward_expansion": 19.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.831459, 12.819598, 12.820022, 12.837027 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.72, "trend_reference": 12.832186, "distance_from_trend": -0.008743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.128685, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.495566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010899, "excess_performance": -0.136523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013723, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142992, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881777, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 765006, "relative_activity": 1.279518, "balance": 0.881777, "dry_up": 0.966513, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018368, "annualized_volatility": 0.099828, "from_high_reference": -0.044371, "from_low_reference": 0.055372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.832186, "fair_value_reference": 11.128685, "structural_low": 12.494542, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000258, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005371, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.056484, "worst_return": -0.100237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019718, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056499, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.049818, "worst_return": -0.081104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035897, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.114284, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.069275, "worst_return": -0.13906, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024297, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", 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"close": 12.89, "volume": 539714, "typical_volume": 571717.8, "trend": 12.796283, "fair_value": 11.074126, "relative_strength": -5.720495, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.203307, "energy": 20.171869, "activity_lines": [ 12.866176, 12.816251, 12.82461, 12.836619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.9, "volume": 593217, "typical_volume": 577846.95, "trend": 12.817395, "fair_value": 11.101382, "relative_strength": -6.379636, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.307317, "energy": 25.085977, "activity_lines": [ 12.883725, 12.834676, 12.830739, 12.84331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.72, "volume": 765006, "typical_volume": 597886.0, "trend": 12.832186, "fair_value": 11.128685, "relative_strength": -10.495566, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.820631, "energy": 4.75632, "activity_lines": [ 12.831459, 12.819598, 12.820022, 12.837027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }