{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ff110dc-e9c2-4d07-b1cb-d36226a6686a", "symbol": "600561", "name": "Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.351, "architecture_energy": 47.028, "architecture_maturity": 65.799, "architecture_confidence": 90.542, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 25.72, "upward_expansion": 7.3, "deceleration": 60.77, "rotation_down": 50.42, "downward_expansion": 80.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.202667, 5.208, 5.626, 5.924108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.5, "trend_reference": 6.275667, "distance_from_trend": -0.123599, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.822564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.364444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202899, "excess_performance": -0.159695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123599, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077741, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274014, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.2778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31652172, "relative_activity": 1.283013, "balance": 0.2778, "dry_up": 1.166226, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098042, "annualized_volatility": 0.343393, "from_high_reference": -0.290323, "from_low_reference": 0.20614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.275667, "fair_value_reference": 5.822564, "structural_low": 4.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.021572, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.03064, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.335165, "worst_return": -0.149901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002492, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179221, "worst_return": -0.197183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.224825, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.315516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.410749, "worst_return": 0.038902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036335, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004231, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 5.149333, 5.397636, 5.893238, 6.154129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.77, "volume": 32874473, "typical_volume": 24514970.0, "trend": 6.352333, "fair_value": 5.823077, "relative_strength": -25.062127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.639453, "energy": 71.92455, "activity_lines": [ 5.011333, 5.227091, 5.75581, 6.048022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.24, "volume": 23110900, "typical_volume": 24408085.3, "trend": 6.308333, "fair_value": 5.822564, "relative_strength": -17.581051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.81481, "energy": 56.95753, "activity_lines": [ 5.069333, 5.179818, 5.67419, 5.976258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.5, "volume": 31652172, "typical_volume": 24670183.9, "trend": 6.275667, "fair_value": 5.822564, "relative_strength": -15.364444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.350827, "energy": 47.02803, "activity_lines": [ 5.202667, 5.208, 5.626, 5.924108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }