{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ff5c3d4-de5d-419e-b158-1f793e059947", "symbol": "XAID", "name": "Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence & Big Data UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.406, "architecture_energy": 29.469, "architecture_maturity": 73.186, "architecture_confidence": 95.631, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.53, "rotation_up": 25.92, "upward_expansion": 57.05, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 30.84, "downward_expansion": 20.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 227.466665, 230.45818, 227.989856, 217.793828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 236.399994, "trend_reference": 205.151, "distance_from_trend": 0.152322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 149.048345, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.586063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.575039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.324964, "excess_performance": 0.273728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096837, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.586063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.13575, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077612, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.324964, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.14528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26168, "relative_activity": 0.606094, "balance": 2.14528, "dry_up": 1.011411, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051087, "annualized_volatility": 0.274879, "from_high_reference": -0.042527, "from_low_reference": 0.48904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 205.151, "fair_value_reference": 149.048345, "structural_low": 162.339996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027007, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.024845, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.053559, "worst_return": -0.073472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058241, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.032831, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119715, "worst_return": -0.127674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.149129, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.135738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394625, "worst_return": -0.069993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.525387, "energy": 28.234363, "activity_lines": [ 227.056666, 232.317272, 225.043524, 214.367613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 222.25, "volume": 36364, "typical_volume": 43017.3, "trend": 203.447667, "fair_value": 148.129755, "relative_strength": 7.500198, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.917434, "energy": 27.710844, "activity_lines": [ 224.36, 230.033636, 225.955047, 215.667871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.399994, "volume": 26168, "typical_volume": 43174.85, "trend": 205.151, "fair_value": 149.048345, "relative_strength": 13.575039, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.406411, "energy": 29.468509, "activity_lines": [ 227.466665, 230.45818, 227.989856, 217.793828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }